Your average man in the betting shop loves to talk about “good things”, “dead certs” and horses that simply “cannot lose”. But if ever there was one certainty in racing, it is that there has never been a certainty in a race. A quick story to illustrate the point:
In greyhound racing, aside from official rules races there would often be what were termed ‘flapping’ races. These poor standard races were not policed as stringently as the top races, and were often the target of a little skulduggery.
One particular trainer had a dog who was next to useless, but became unwittingly a potential money-spinner when it was noticed he had very similar markings to a ‘warm’ greyhound that had just arrived at the kennels.
The trainer decided to try his luck by running a ‘ringer’. In other words, passing the better dog off as the mutt. All was going well, and several tasty bets had been struck by those in the know, and at decent prices. Nothing that might attract attention, but enough to pay a few bills. The foundations for the betting coup had been laid.
The ringer duly flew out of the traps, and was a distance clear coming around the final bend, hugging the rail like a professionally-trained greyhound (which of course in this case he was!) However, running so close to the rails as he was, the dog struck a poorly maintained fence pole that was jutting out a little, and he came to grief. Sadly he broke a leg and had to be put down.
The organisers of the coup not only lost their betting money, but also the best dog in the kennels. They were also unable to claim on the insurance for fear of being rumbled.
[box size="large"]The moral is clear – there are no certainties in racing.[/box]
Your selection in a race may have everything in it’s favour, but there is still the question of its chances of winning. Remember, we’ve already agreed that every horse in a race has a chance of winning, ergo no one horse has a 100% chance of winning. Admittedly it is all a matter of opinion – you may consider a horse priced at 5/2 to represent a value bet, whereas another punter may not wish to bet it unless he can get 4/1 or better. This all makes for a fascinating game.
The successful punter is in it for the long haul, not for a quick buck
But the crucial point to make here is that in the long run the successful punter will prove more accurate in his assessment of a horse’s chances than the average man in the betting shop. Over time he will come to rely on his judgement to the point where he feels just as confident as you or I would be backing Tails at 6/4 and he will believe he is constantly taking over the odds about all his selections.
I wrote an article recently about how things can still go wrong, even when you are making all the right betting choices (you can read it here)
Just as in that story, the successful punter will not always win, but it is the nearest thing to an absolute certainty in betting that his account will be showing a profit in the end. By the same token, our friend in the orange and brown shell-suit will eventually end up a loser if he keeps taking the odds on.
This unlikely character may seem ridiculous, but the truth of it is that he can be seen in every betting shop up and down the country, and on every race course, lumping on the favourite time after time. For sure, he will regularly come up trumps and go to the window to collect. Occasionally he will also stumble across a value bet.
But in time he is certain to lose, because he has no concept of value. The financially successful punter on the other hand, whilst making every effort to find the winners, will always be guided first and foremost by value before striking a bet.
He will endeavour to assess the true chances of a horse in a race – not just the favourite or the most likely winner according to his handicapping skills, but all runners in with a realistic chance. He will then study the odds and prices on offer, and only move in when he believes there is value to be had.
Further reading: The Best of SkyBlueKangaroo
