We can look forward to a fine Saturday afternoon of racing tomorrow, with the promise of more to come next week at Glorious Goodwood.
Of course, the feature race of the weekend is the King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Ascot. It’s a middle-distance Group 1 event run over a mile and a half, and we currently have seven runners scheduled to go to post. Included among these is this year’s Derby winner Workforce, who is trading around the even money mark at the moment.
A ‘good thing’ you might think. Maybe. Eight of the last fourteen winners of this race were sent off as favourite, and the last six winners have all been the punters’ choice.
But the Stoute horse also falls down on a couple of trends as well. The Irish-bred horses have dominated this race in recent years, and you have to go back to Pentire in 1996 to find the most recent winner not to have hailed from across the Irish Sea.
The race has been won typically by versatile horses, with at least four wins under their saddle already, and wins over a variety of at least three different distances. Workforce is a relative novice by comparison. It’s perhaps a bit irreverent to remind everyone that Workforce has only won one decent race, when that race happens to be The Derby.
Nonetheless, there are two horses running tomorrow that tick more trends boxes than the favourite, namely Harbinger and Cape Blanco.
You could choose to lay bets against Workforce for an equal risk/reward ratio at even money. However, for me, much more appealing is the potential pay-off of backing Cape Blanco at around 6/1
So that will be my bet of the weekend, Cape Blanco for the King George.
I’m off to get stuck into more trends analysis ahead of Goodwood which kicks off next Tuesday. Enjoy your weekend, and for those fellow parents amongst you, I have selected a track which may well strike fear into your very hearts, as you look forward to the next six weeks….
Firstly, apologies for a lack of posting since last Monday. Among other topics, I had planned a look ahead to the John Smith’s Cup which took place last Saturday, and a piece about ‘persistence’ in betting. But the thing is, life got in the way! A couple of things important to me came up, and I had to take some time out to get them resolved. I also had a day already in my diary to take my youngest son out for his 5th birthday treat – a trip to Shropshire to pick up his spanking-new bike from the showroom. I don’t like going more than a few days without putting something new on the site for you all to read, but sometimes we have to prioritise our time, and there are only 24 hours in a day.
Life will get in the way of your betting too, from time to time.
I don’t really want this post to be a patronising ’public information’ broadcast, but it’s important to understand that your betting should always be fun. For the majority of punters it is a form of entertainment. For some punters it is more serious, and provides a second income. For an elite few it is their sole source of income. But no-matter how big a part of your life betting plays, in my opinion you should always enjoy your punting.
So if something crops up that causes you to miss a race, or miss a days racing, or to take a prolonged period away from betting, then so be it. Don’t beat yourself up when you check the results, and your favourite system highlighted a winner at 10/1 the other other day whilst you were away. If the system is any good, there will be more 10/1 winners.
In fact, taking some time out occasionally will actually improve your betting. After a period where you are not focusing 100% on facts, figures, form, systems, trends, and so on, you can approach your betting with a fresh view and a sharp mind.
I will be posting the ‘persistence’ article tomorrow, and on Thursday I plan to look ahead to one of the big races this coming weekend. Normal service will soon be resumed. Keep tuned.
As a point of interest, what is the biggest bet you have missed? I wonder if anyone can beat the story of World Cup winning goalkeeper and captain of Spain, Iker Casillas. Apparently when he was a boy, he forgot to post the football pools coupon for his father, and cost the family the equivalent of one million pounds! Can you imagine the father-son conversation that ensued?
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