But now I’m not so sure.
With the Cheltenham Festival just two short weeks away, I have to confess I find myself a-dithering. I want to jump off, but someone must have just painted this fence I am sitting on, because I appear to be stuck.
I find myself perched, my fellow TIP’s, upon the horns of a dilemma, and it’s getting painful. In fact, technically I’m not 100% sure it can be called a dilemma, as my particular problem has three horns, so if there is such a thing my puzzle could be described as a trilemna! Whatever it be called, I am squirming in my seat like a politician at an expenses enquiry.
UOSKRAATT…. It’s a Gold Cup conundrum. In January I had a strong opinion of my favourite for the showpiece at Cheltenham. I was firmly routed in the Kauto Star camp. However, as curtain-up approaches I’m trying to maintain my strong opinion and I find I can’t…. because I now have three strong opinions and they are each vying for my attention.
My original opinion was that Kauto Star deserves to be at the top of the market for the Gold Cup and is one of the finest chasers I have ever seen. I was at Kempton over Christmas to see him annihilate the King George field, taking thirty six lengths out of his nearest rival within the length of the finishing straight.
My second opinion is that Denman deserves to be second favourite for the Gold Cup and is one of the finest chasers I’ve ever seen. His performance when conceding such a weight to his rivals when taking the Hennessy at Newbury in muddy conditions was nothing less than awesome; but I still think Kauto Star is a better horse.
My third opinion, is that Imperial Commander does not deserve to be favourite nor second favourite for the Gold Cup but isn’t far behind the other two. And quite frankly, I like this horse.
The Cheltenham Gold Cup has long been showcased as a duel between Kauto Star and Denman. At the beginning of the year both were equal favourites for the title of Champion staying chaser. But then Denman shot AP McCoy out the side door at Newbury in the Aon Chase. Kauto Star is now odds on, and you can back Denman at 7/2 and even 4/1 with William Hill as the author writes this. Imperial Commander is generally 10/1
What to do?
My heart still tells me Kauto Star will win, but I cannot have him at odds on. Meanwhile, the thinking side of my character says Denman has to hope Kauto Star is not firing on all cylinders on the day to win, but at 4/1 perhaps there is now considerable value in that particilar proposition.
What to do indeed! As a result of these inner churnings, my anticipation of the Festival has reached new heights.
Of one thing I remain steadfastly certain…. I love horse racing because it is one true theatre for debate. Lets look at Denman as a prime example of a horse who can divide and polarize opinions. There is a school of thought that suggests that the only way to enter into the steeple-chasing Hall Of Fame is to carry top weight to victory in a prestigious handicap. Denman has been there, and in fact done that, twice. The other half will retort that to gain immortality a horse must prove himself in a championship race at level weights. Well Denman can rightly tick that box as well. And then the other half (is that now three halves?) of which I include myself, suggest in all probability he will not win the Gold Cup.
I have to take my hat off to Denman and his connections for the way he has been so boldly campaigned, given his prior health issues. I think it is testament to the trainer, and the owners Harry Findlay and Paul Barber, to recognise that the betting public and racing enthusiasts all have a desire to see a great horse tested to his extraordinary limits. He has shirked very few issues in a solid career, but if today’s ante-post market for the Gold Cup is anything to go by he clearly still has a little way to go to win over everybody. Myself included…. even though the 4/1 is sitting there like a piece of chocolate cake, just tempting me to take a bite.
The great thing about this season’s Gold Cup at Cheltenham, even though it has been hyped to the rafters, is that most agree it is going to be a belter! And who is to say that one of the underdogs will not defy all expectations and grab the glory from the two main protagonists? Imperial Commander?
Have your say. Who do you think will win the Cheltenham Gold Cup? Leave your thoughts in the comments below.
As someone who discusses horse racing on a blog, talks about betting systems, and provides a horse racing handicapping service, it will not surprise you to hear that I’m often asked for tips. Most of my friends know what I do for a living, and when we are down the pub, out on a cycle ride, or even if I’m stood at school of an afternoon to pick up the boys and I bump into one of the other school Dads, the topic of conversation will invariably turn to “got any tips for tomorrow?”
Whilst I have never been too comfortable giving hard and fast tips on individual races, I have always been happy to offer some general advice that can produce more winners and reduce the number of avoidable losing bets. I believe sensible strategic advice is something you can charge for, but I’m afraid I don’t have the confidence to ask people for money for my opinion as a professional tipster.
That said, these tips are the top three that I have learned in more than 10 years battling against the bookmakers, and latterly the exchange players. You may well disagree with the meritable order of them, and perhaps you will consider some ‘golden rules’ of your own more important. That of course is your opinion, and as you know, all opinions are most welcome here at SkyBlueKangaroo.com.
These three tips are the most important to me, and I owe each a debt of gratitude for helping me gain just the slightest of edges when playing the horses.
TOP TIP #1 First up, and Tip Number One is actually about life. Trying to earn a living at the races is tough, real tough. Whilst betting on horse racing can be great fun, especially when at the track, and with some sound strategies and the help of a following wind even profitable, it can also be soul destroying and an emotional drain. If you do it month in, month out for a living, it can also be boring at times. In reality, working hard to come out ahead by betting on horses is a million miles from the millionnaire lifestyle portrayed by “those” betting system sellers. Sorry if it isn’t as glamorous as you thought, but that’s the way it is. I still love handicapping horse races and playing them for profit, and I couldn’t go back to a ‘proper job’. And that’s assuming someone would be insane enough to employ me! It’s crucial you love what you do, otherwise you would struggle to succeed long term.
TOP TIP #2 Next, and Tip Number Two is about playing the horses in general. You will NEVER ever beat the races. But you CAN succeed, one race at a time, and one bet at a time. Horse race handicapping and betting on horses is an intellectual challenge, so it’s crucial you choose the races you play carefully, and pay attention to the many factors that can affect the outcome of a race. You would be wise to get into the habit of approaching each race on its individual merits, but learn to keep the big picture in mind as well. Each and every race is important, but remain emotionally detached and refrain from going on tilt when you lose a bet. If a race doesn’t pan out how you expected, you need to accept this will always happen, and you will never be right every time. The very best professional punters lose many of their bets.
I often motivate myself through a bad patch by thinking about the sport of baseball, in particular, batting averages. More often than not, even the very best major league baseball players fail to hit the ball when they step up to the plate. In fact, a player with a 0.333 average will be considered “good” even though they only hit the ball once every three attempts! Think about it, he fails twice as much as he succeeds, and he is considered “good” at what he does! You will also lose more than you win, but the trade secret is to win enough times, at the right prices, to make a profit, and that brings me to Tip Number Three.
TOP TIP #3 Tip Number Three concerns value betting and paying attention to what horses are paying to win. Have the discipline to shop for value odds on your chosen horse and never be consumed by the form of a horse to the exclusion of all else. No matter how much you might think your selection cannot lose given its figures, horses with outstanding form compared to their rivals still lose races. If your choice is your top rated and has a 50% chance of winning, you must still get better than odds of evens to make money on it. The ability to manage your money and your understanding of the financial side of betting and winning is a critical factor to your success, because if you lose all your money, your skills in race prediction will be academic.
I hope you find some value in each of these tips, but what is your one ‘Golden Rule’ when it comes to betting? Let me know your thoughts and leave a comment below.
Further reading:
How to cope with losing runs
