Today I’ve devised a scenario so you can test yourself to see how you would react in the face of a series of different betting opportunities. Put yourself in this imaginary situation, and answer honestly. You’re in your local bookmakers…
In this illustration I want to you to concentrate just on the odds.
All complicated variables have been swept away, because I’m using a scenario we are all familiar with – the toss of a coin. Heads or tails.
Simple as that. Or is it?
First, award yourself a fictional bank of cash that you are prepared to lose, and I want you to consider carefully the following betting opportunities….
What would you do if your bookmaker offered Even Money on both Heads and Tails for the first toss? If you were bored and looking for something to pass the time, you might make a selection. But it’s hardly the betting opportunity of a lifetime, is it?
But then the bookmaker offers 4/5 on Heads, 5/4 Tails.
This is where the action begins
Your decision to bet is made easy, right? You know you are getting value for your money if you bet Tails. So place your bet…. Done?
Just as you are feeling smug in the knowledge of a job well done, into the bookmakers strolls a guy in an orange and brown shell-suit who backs Heads. You ask him “why?” and he will have a reason, because everyone who ever had a bet also had a reason. He might just say he fancies Heads, or he might have a more considered reason “It’s come up Tails for the last five spins so we must be due Heads now.” He might even say he’s heard the coin is dodgy, or he’s had a tip for Heads.
Sound familiar?
Of course any reason he gives has to be taken with a pinch of salt. Everyone knows the odds on a toss of a coin, yet our friend in the orange and brown shell-suit is happy to bet at less than the going rate by backing Heads.
However, the crux of the matter is still to come for both you and the guy in the orange and brown shell-suit. The toss. Still happy with your bet?
The result is Heads and our friend strides up to the counter bold as brass to collect. He says he “knew” it would be Heads, and he will gladly buy you a pint in the pub and explain his system. But before you wander off to the pub, the odds on the next coin toss are posted. This time it’s 4/6
Heads, and 6/4 Tails. Our friend jumps straight in, and has most of what he has just won on Heads at the price. He looks at you and with a shrug of the shoulders says he fancies Tails a bit now, but at the start of the day he chose Heads, and you should never change your mind, right?
The 6/4 is still available about Tails, so you’ve just got a few seconds to decide how you want to play.
Make up your mind, and place your bet now. Have you got a good bet on?
Now comes the important bit, the result. Heads again I’m afraid. The guy in the orange and brown shell-suit is first in line to collect, and he’s got a grin across his face that could span the Mersey!
There’s plenty of other favourite backers there too, most of them thinking they have finally got the game cracked after all these years.
Still thinking clearly?
There is one more toss of the coin to go. How are you feeling? Still thinking clearly?
Not that your need to do much thinking, as now the prices are 1/2 for Heads, and 2/1 for Tails. The guy in the orange and brown shell-suit is nowhere to be seen. He is undoubtedly in the pub drinking his winnings. So there’s no distractions this time. This time it is down to your own judgement. Place your bet.
Are you on Tails? OK, now for the final toss of the coin. This time it’s agonizingly close. The coin spins on it’s edge for what seems like ages, before finally falling on one side…. it’s Heads.
No-one would blame you for making a speedy exit out the door now, but as you rush to get out you bump into your friend, and guess what he did have a bet on Heads! He was on a roll of course, and you have to stick with a winning system, right? Nothing extravagant he tells you, but a nice little earner in the circumstances “know what I mean?”
I’m guessing if you’ve been betting for any length of time you will know exactly what he means. And that is the point of this imaginary tale, to highlight some of the challenges, fears and emotions that go with betting, whatever the stakes, and whatever the situation.
You’ve probably lost a painful amount of virtual cash on those three coin tosses. And what do you feel about our friend in the orange and brown shell-suit, as he gleefully flags down a taxi to head off for a slap up curry in town?
I imagine a feeling of anger and jealousy at the sheer injustice of his luck. How could anybody be so vulgar, stick two fingers up in the face of all logic, and manage to get away with it?
You may be tempted to dismiss the whole scenario as unlikely and irrelevant. In reality surely no-one would be so foolish as to accept odds-on about the outcome of a toss of a coin, would they?
One would sincerely hope not! But then I can distinctly remember seeing a bookmaker’s advert in the Sporting Life which offered odds on which team would win the toss of the coin before the cricket final of the Nat West Trophy – both teams were put in at 20/21
It’s difficult to imagine, but every day in betting shops around the country there are characters behaving like the guy in the orange and brown shell-suit. They bet on horses without any idea of the true chance of the horse winning, and give only a momentary thought about whether they are getting value. Occasionally, just like our friend, they will get lucky and go on a roll. But in the long run they may as well be taking 4/5 about the toss of a coin because they are certain to lose.
Let’s return now to our original tale, and transfer the scene from that of a coin toss to that of a theoretical horse race. It doesn’t matter at this point what type of race it is, nor the number of runners.
You may be thinking the two examples could not be more different, but they are in fact profoundly similar.
How does this story relate to betting on horse racing?
Consider again the guy backing the coin toss odds on. It was easy to see he was not getting good value when taking those odds. In the event of tossing a coin, there are only two outcomes, both random, heads or tails, and both represent a genuine even-money chance. This is fact.
There are two key facts which I hope we all agree on about a horse race:
1) Every runner has a chance of winning, however slender that chance may be.
2) Every runner will have a price which represents its true chance of winning.
The problem we face is that, unlike the toss of the coin example, it is impossible to verify the true chances of a horse in a race. It is all a matter of opinion and interpretation. Your interpretation of available information can be honed to a point where your betting can become profitable. The trade secret to improving your powers of interpretation lies within an understanding of odds and chances, as they relate to a horse race (or any other betting event).
Of course life would be so much simpler if we could all bet on the toss of a coin, but the analogy remains valid. You must now seek out those opportunities where you can take control of the odds and beat the bookmaker (or other punters willing to lay your bets on the exchanges) and their own game.
You will not always win
Just like our unfortunate punter you will not always win. But if you keep doing the right thing consistently, and you know you are doing the right thing, you will have an air of confidence that follows a successful punter wherever he goes.
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