Last Saturday I was looking for a vulnerable favourite we could bet against, and lay to lose on Betfair.

I singled out a horse called Smuglin who was running in a novice chase for mares only at Uttoxeter. The going was Heavy and Smuglin had failed to win on slow ground after three attempts. She was up against a credible competitor in Evella who had won twice on Soft ground. At a forecast 4/7 odds-on I thought the market was over-estimating the chances of Smuglin, and it made sense to be laying the favourite rather than backing her.

On this occasion we were right to bet against the favourite, we collected on our lay bet, and indeed Evella did come home first by 14 lengths.

This week I am going to study one of the weekend’s feature races and use trends analysis to try and pinpoint the winner. I’m looking at the Heroes Handicap Hurdle which is run at Sandown tomorrow. It’s a Grade 3 race for horses 4yo and older, and run over 2m6f.

You may remember from previous articles I have written about using trends, that what we seek to do is construct a profile of the typical winner by looking back at previous winners of the same race. We then try to find which of today’s runners most closely fits that profile.

If we look back at the last fourteen renewals of this race….

• 13 were carrying between 9st 11lbs and 11st 3lbs on their back, and the last 6 winners have carried no more than 10st 10lbs. *
• 13 had winning form over 20f and further. The exception was Chief Yeoman in 2009 who had previously won over distances up to 17f
• 13 had raced within the last 61 days. The exception was Tullymurry Toof in 1997 who came here to win after a 71 day absence. *
• 12 raced over at least 21f last time out.
• 12 had yet to win a race of this calibre.
• 12 finished in the first 4 in their last race. *
• 11 were aged between 5yo and 8yo.
• 11 managed a top 3 finish in their highest ranked race to date.
• 11 had run at least twice already that season.
• 11 had finished either 1st or 2nd at least twice in their last 4 outings, and 4 of the last 5 winners had won at least twice.
• 10 were stepping up in class compared to their most recent race.
• 10 had a win strike rate of at least 1-in-4.
• Paul Nicholls has trained the winner of the Heroes Handicap Hurdle 3 times in the last 14 years.

An asterisk (*) denotes that all 5 of the last 5 winners comply with this trend.

Narrowing down the field…. By applying these trends to the runners today, we can narrow down the field and find the horse that most closely fits the profile of previous winners of this race.

No ‘killer stat’ for this race, but let’s begin trimming the field according to weight carried. History suggests it will be difficult to win if asked to carry anything more than 11st 3lbs so Quartz De Thaix, Pause And Clause, Lush Life, and Roll Along are relieved.

Sandown has a stiff finish and most previous winners had proven they can stay the distance with winning form over 20f or further. So this means adios to Alfie Spinner, County Zen, Mr Jay Dee, William Hogarth, and Altihar.

Next I want to see a run within the past couple of months, and Prince Tom, Arkrose, and Like A Hurricane have all been absent a little too long.

A prep run over a fair trip is a positive sign, and I’m looking for those who ran over at least 21f last time. Dansimar, Numide, and National Trust don’t tick that particular box.

Good recent form and a top 4 finish in their last race is my next requirement, and Kilcrea Kim, Dantari, and Gee Dee Nen all fail here.

Which boils the field down to three contenders, namely Mister Hyde, Supreme De Paille, and Miss Overdrive. These three are currently trading from 6/1 to 25/1 so I would like to lose at least one more before making a selection.

At 9 years of age Supreme De Paille may be too old to win this race according to recent stats, so he is the last horse I will remove from my reckoning.

Another horse of interest at a massive 66/1 is the bottom weight National Trust. He scores highly behind Mister Hyde and Supreme Paille when I came to score the race.

Suggested bets: Sandown 3:00 Mister Hyde and Miss Overdrive

For those interested in trends analysis I have an exciting announcement to make about my Horse Racing Trends service, and to herald this news next week I am giving away another collection of free betting systems. Keep an eye on your Inbox next Tuesday as I shall be sending a message to let you know how you can get your hands on these systems.

Have a great week end, and enjoy your punting.