But now I’m not so sure.

With the Cheltenham Festival just two short weeks away, I have to confess I find myself a-dithering. I want to jump off, but someone must have just painted this fence I am sitting on, because I appear to be stuck.

I find myself perched, my fellow TIP’s, upon the horns of a dilemma, and it’s getting painful. In fact, technically I’m not 100% sure it can be called a dilemma, as my particular problem has three horns, so if there is such a thing my puzzle could be described as a trilemna! Whatever it be called, I am squirming in my seat like a politician at an expenses enquiry.

UOSKRAATT…. It’s a Gold Cup conundrum. In January I had a strong opinion of my favourite for the showpiece at Cheltenham. I was firmly routed in the Kauto Star camp. However, as curtain-up approaches I’m trying to maintain my strong opinion and I find I can’t…. because I now have three strong opinions and they are each vying for my attention.

My original opinion was that Kauto Star deserves to be at the top of the market for the Gold Cup and is one of the finest chasers I have ever seen. I was at Kempton over Christmas to see him annihilate the King George field, taking thirty six lengths out of his nearest rival within the length of the finishing straight.

My second opinion is that Denman deserves to be second favourite for the Gold Cup and is one of the finest chasers I’ve ever seen. His performance when conceding such a weight to his rivals when taking the Hennessy at Newbury in muddy conditions was nothing less than awesome; but I still think Kauto Star is a better horse.

My third opinion, is that Imperial Commander does not deserve to be favourite nor second favourite for the Gold Cup but isn’t far behind the other two. And quite frankly, I like this horse.

The Cheltenham Gold Cup has long been showcased as a duel between Kauto Star and Denman. At the beginning of the year both were equal favourites for the title of Champion staying chaser. But then Denman shot AP McCoy out the side door at Newbury in the Aon Chase. Kauto Star is now odds on, and you can back Denman at 7/2 and even 4/1 with William Hill as the author writes this. Imperial Commander is generally 10/1

What to do?

My heart still tells me Kauto Star will win, but I cannot have him at odds on. Meanwhile, the thinking side of my character says Denman has to hope Kauto Star is not firing on all cylinders on the day to win, but at 4/1 perhaps there is now considerable value in that particilar proposition.

What to do indeed! As a result of these inner churnings, my anticipation of the Festival has reached new heights.

Of one thing I remain steadfastly certain…. I love horse racing because it is one true theatre for debate. Lets look at Denman as a prime example of a horse who can divide and polarize opinions. There is a school of thought that suggests that the only way to enter into the steeple-chasing Hall Of Fame is to carry top weight to victory in a prestigious handicap. Denman has been there, and in fact done that, twice. The other half will retort that to gain immortality a horse must prove himself in a championship race at level weights. Well Denman can rightly tick that box as well. And then the other half (is that now three halves?) of which I include myself, suggest in all probability he will not win the Gold Cup.

I have to take my hat off to Denman and his connections for the way he has been so boldly campaigned, given his prior health issues. I think it is testament to the trainer, and the owners Harry Findlay and Paul Barber, to recognise that the betting public and racing enthusiasts all have a desire to see a great horse tested to his extraordinary limits. He has shirked very few issues in a solid career, but if today’s ante-post market for the Gold Cup is anything to go by he clearly still has a little way to go to win over everybody. Myself included…. even though the 4/1 is sitting there like a piece of chocolate cake, just tempting me to take a bite.

The great thing about this season’s Gold Cup at Cheltenham, even though it has been hyped to the rafters, is that most agree it is going to be a belter! And who is to say that one of the underdogs will not defy all expectations and grab the glory from the two main protagonists? Imperial Commander?

Have your say. Who do you think will win the Cheltenham Gold Cup? Leave your thoughts in the comments below.