I had a system for laying horses to lose sent in to me recently by one of my readers. Big Al (as he has asked to be known) from the West Midlands originally suggested to me that using a particular selection method for laying horses had given him profits in the past, so I asked him to follow his system for a month, and show me the results.
The rules for this system are as follows:
1. Look for races with 14 or more runners.
2. Make sure the race is no longer than 2m 5f
3. Select and lay the CLEAR favourite.
4. Make sure the odds are between 2/1 and 15/2
….and that’s it! The system can be applied to any code, Flat, National Hunt, or the all-weather.
These are the race favourites selected to lose by this system recently, and how they fared:
Jan 19 Alpha Way 4/1 LOST, Moonstreaker 5/2 LOST, Mount Helicon 3/1 LOST
Jan 21 Be My Light 3/1 LOST
Jan 22 Cross Compliance 9/2 LOST, Vannin 9/4 LOST, Isle De Maurice 11/4 LOST
Jan 24 Resentful Angel 10/3 LOST, Rothres 3/1 LOST
Jan 27 Action Impact 85/40 LOST, Victory Surge 7/2 LOST
Feb 4 Gentle Caribou 10/3 LOST
Feb 5 Warrior One 2/1 LOST
Feb 6 River D’Or 9/2 LOST, Shadrack 11/4 LOST, Leos Lucky Star 3/1 LOST, Attaglance 7/2 LOST
Feb 7 Stoneys Treasure 7/2 LOST
Feb 8 Quick Live 2/1 LOST
Feb 9 Vivarni 3/1 LOST
Feb 11 Granakey 3/1 LOST, The Mouse Carroll 9/2 LOST
Feb 12 Lepido 9/2 LOST, Over The Flow 11/4 LOST
Feb 13 Cairnsmore 9/4 LOST, Mamlook 11/2 LOST
Feb 14 Just Playful 5/1 LOST, Thievery 9/2 LOST, Rebel du Maquis 85/40 LOST
Feb 16 Kingsdale Orion 5/2 LOST, Luksar 4/1 LOST, Lockedinthepocket 7/2 LOST
Feb 18 Dare Me 5/2 WON
Big Al was getting excited and thought he was going to go the full test with a 100% record, but was just foiled with the last selection winning.
It should be pointed out that all prices are to SP and NOT Betfair odds. The profit amounted to 30.5 points.
These are pretty impressive results BUT a word of caution…. most of the jumps selections have been running on ground worse than soft. Improving ground conditions may result in not such a good return as this.
Big Al told me he found that placing the lay bets had to be done just prior to the ‘off’ to take into account non-runners and flip-flopping favourites.
What do I think? Well, before you all rush off to lay any horses that meet with the criteria laid out above, I would reiterate Big Al’s observation that the current soft ground may have had a big influence on the figures. But there is no denying the results are good. I think it would be prudent to paper-trade this system for a couple of months, before making any decision to start laying at minimum stakes. What would also be interesting would be to make a note of the going against each result. Subsequent analysis of the results and profits returned over various ground conditions could indicate whether extremes of going improves the profitability.
At the very least you may have a system to keep on the back burner, that you can wheel out when the rains come and the ground gets soft or heavy.
If you have any systems you use, you have at least thirty days results to show, and you don’t mind sharing with readers of the blog, then drop me a line or leave a comment below.
Further reading:
Read my review of the Fancy Fillies laying system
Read my review of Betting Against Horses For Profit
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