Happy Friday fellow TIP’s, and welcome to another weekly wrap here on SkyBlueKangaroo. In my last post of February I’m going to be examining the big race of the weekend, the Racing Post Chase at Kempton tomorrow, and highlighting a few trends horses you may wish to keep an eye out for in other races. I’m doffing my hat in tribute to a sporting achiever, before signing off with another topical music track from years gone by that you may not have heard for a while.
First, the Racing Post Chase. For me it’s one of the best staying handicap chases outside the Cheltenham Festival, and is usually a valuable pointer towards the big Nationals later in the year. In an attempt to solve the puzzle I’m going to use some trends analysis to try and build a profile of the winning horse. Usually in big races such as this, the winner will share one, two, or more traits with the majority of previous winners. By examining past winners we can uncover form characteristics to look for in today’s runners, to try and narrow down the field.
The first statistic from previous renewals of the Racing Post Chase that cannot fail to be noticed, is that 10 from the last 11 winners had won their previous race. Apply this trend and we would lose all but Piraya and Fistral Beach, so perhaps I might come back to that one.
Another stat that struck me was that the longest price of the last 10 winners was 10/1 when Naccarat won last year. The race clearly favours those at the top end of the market, and surprises are uncommon. If we rule out any horses priced above 10/1 we lose Ollie Magern, Something Wells, Atouchbetweenacara, Razor Royale, Bible Lord, Piraya, Oedipe, Private Be, and Le Burf.
We are left with four horses.
The race would also appear to favour those classier horses carrying the most weight. In the last ten runnings, only Gunther McBride in 2002 has carried less than 10st 13lb to victory. If we apply that weight as the minimum then we can rule out Kilcrea Castle who is set to carry 10st 6lbs, and the Walsh/Nicholls horse Fistral Beach who will have but 10st on his back.
This leaves the likely favourite Nacarat, ridden by Tony McCoy, and David Pipe’s Madison Du Berlais with Tom Scudamore on board.
I’m going to stick my neck out on the outsider of the two, and nail my colours to the mast of Madison Du Berlais, in the hope he will bounce back from a lacklustre performance at Cheltenham last time out. On form he has the galloping speed to run his rivals into the ground, so with a truly run race I think he will be in their staking a claim to the race. Remember, without Kauto Star, he was the winner of the King George back at Christmas time, and on this track.
My selection: Madison Du Berlais forecast 9/1
Profitable trends
Here’s a couple of horses to keep an eye out for tomorrow. They have appeared on my radar as horses riding the crest of a profitable trend. By digging a little deeper, it is possible to unearth some lucrative sub-trends that most punters will be unaware of, simply because they have neither the time nor the inclination to do the research.
Chepstow 3:30 Hopeful Start – Trainer has a profitable return of +19.5% from horses aged 4-7yrs in handicap hurdles.
Kempton 3:40 Soldatino – trainer has a strike rate of 32.6% with 4yo debutants from November to March, and backing these has produced a return of +80.9%
Chapeau!
My victory salute this week goes to Amy Williams who last week end in Vancouver became the first solo Britain to take Gold in the Winter Olympics for thirty years. This is a girl mad enough to throw herself down a chute fashioned from ice, on what amounts to little more than a technical tea-tray, at speeds of around 80mph with her chin just a couple inches from the ice. Chapeau mademoiselle, chapeau!
To end on a Winter Olympics theme, I thought we could finish with Ice Ice Baby, by Robert Van Winkle (aka Vanilla Ice). This is the guy who apparently thought it was cool to dance around in clown’s trousers back in the early 90’s. The first hip hop record to top the billboard charts.
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