Welcome to The Twilight Zone…. in other words, the week between Christmas Day and New Year. I hope you had a fantastic Christmas, and that Santa brought you everything you wished for?
I’ve got a couple of posts lined up for this week, a little outside the norm. All pre-planned and mostly written in advance, just to save time, you understand. With all due respect, Dear Reader, this week is for playing with the kids’ new toys isn’t it? It’s not for slaving over a hot computer screen. I’ve got a horse racing quiz pencilled in for tomorrow, and a list of (some of) my goals for 2010 for Thursday.
But today I’m fulfilling a promise to give you my thoughts on the Long Walk Hurdle at Newbury this afternoon. This race was postponed from the Ascot card eleven days ago.
This race has always been billed as a clash between Big Bucks and Diamond Harry, and a glance today at the betting market shows these two well clear of the field. Paul Nicholls saddles Big Bucks and he is currently a prohibitive 1/2 odds on. Nick Williams trains Diamond Harry, who currently trades at a price of around 4/1 which is not exactly an enticing each way prospect.
So to grab some possible value in this race, I think we need to find the third horse to finish for place money. Let’s take a look at three candidates…
Tony McCoy will be on board Karabak, the horse from the Alan King yard. His last three runs have been in comparable company to the race today, and he certainly has not disgraced himself by finishing as runner-up twice and a creditable fourth only 5 lengths behind the winner. On his seasonal debut this year he found only the favourite for The Champion Hurdle Zaynar too good.
Fair Along won last time out, in a Grade 2 hurdle around the flat left-handed track at Wetherby. However, his performances prior to that run have been indifferent, and hence the price of 22/1 At his best though, he is not a million miles behind Big Bucks and has finished within a dozen lengths of him on more than one occasion.
One more to consider is the David Pipe horse Lough Derg. On his last outing he finished 7 lengths behind Big Bucks, which gives him a good claim on a place today. However, he finished a distance behind Fair Along back in October.
I am tempted to side with Fair Along at a big price, but I would be hoping for him to be in the right mood for a race. So my cautious side is telling me to plump for the more reliable Karabak instead.
My suggestion is Karabak each way as long as he doesn’t dip below the 10/1 mark.
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