It’s Friday afternoon and I’m feeling an affinity for those poor souls who suffered Chinese water torture in POW camps during World War II. For a comment on a horse racing blog that may appear to have come not from left field, but somewhere out in the parking lot… so please, Dear Reader, let me explain.
I’m sitting here in my home office, which is actually the half of the conservatory that I have commandeered for my SkyBlueKangaroo activities, and where my desk is situated. In Tring, long-awaited the thaw seems to be here. The snow is melting on the roof of the house, and subsequently DRIP, DRIP, DRIPPING down onto the glass roof over my head.
After breakfast this morning is was nothing more than background noise. But six hours later I SWEAR it has gotten louder, and the sound of… every… single… DRIP… is boring its way into my brain!!
So thankfully the thaw appears to be upon us, and we may even get to see some turf racing this weekend. It may even be safe to hold our collective breath for some jumps racing without fear of passing out. As I type, the cards at both Huntingdon and Kempton are still scheduled to happen. Hurrah!
The Lanzarote Hurdle is the feature race at Kempton tomorrow, so I’m going to see if I can spot the winner ahead of time. Frankly, with eleven runners priced between 5/1 and 16/1 I think I have as much chance of tipping the winner here as I did with last week’s attempt at Lingfield, but as Del Boy used to say “He who dares, Rodney, he who dares….”.
Nicky Henderson has two horses in the race, but Barry Geraghty will be on board Tasheba. He ran his best race of 2009 last time out when winning a Listed handicap hurdle at Sandown. However, we’re racing half a mile further tomorrow, and he has to shoulder another 8lbs. But at 5/1 it’s not like he’s priced stupid short
I’m looking at two Philip Hobbs horses, and the first is Keki Buku. He won last time out, but in a Class 3 event, and carries a 10lb penalty. I think he is too short at 7/1 and is rated this highly mostly because the latest win was on soft ground.
The other Hobbs horse is Triggerman. He has form on soft going but has not won above Class 4.
Aachen is from the Venetia Williams yard and holds considerable appeal. He hasn’t raced since last April, but does have Festival form having run in the County Hurdle in March. He has won more than once on soft and heavy going, and at the stiff Towcester course which although officially only 2 miles must count for a couple extra furlongs.
Lastly I’m going to consider Consigliere from the David Pipe stable. His chase form suggests he could compete at this level, but I’m concerned he has not raced over hurdles since 2006 and has never jumped a hurdle in this country. I’m always wary that a horse returning to turf after months on the all-weather does not often resort to type straight away, and for similar reasons I would not expect a Class 2 hurdles pertformance first time of asking, even from a Class 2 chaser.
On balance it’s the form of Aachen that catches my eye.
My selection: Kempton 2:45 Aachen to win, forecast 8/1
Profitable trends
As normal, I’ve switched on my radar in case any trend horses are looming on the horizon. These are horses highlighted by my research into niche betting. We’re letting history be our guide, and history tells us that backing these types of horse, under certain circumstances, has returned a profit. Of course we are assuming history will repeat itself, and that trends continue to trend.
Huntingdon 1:55 Rackham Lerouge – Nicky Henderson debutants, when particularly fancied, are successful 37.8% of the time at this track, and give an ROI of +44.6% He is forecast second favourite.
Huntingdon 3:35 Knar Mardy – for similar reasons as Rackham Lerouge above (if he is first or second favourite).
Lingfield 3:40 Bridge Of Gold – fancied horses from this yard have produced a ROI of +37.9% and a strike rate of 27.2% The horse is currently bet in the middle of the field, but should the money come and he ends up in the top three in the market, it will be worthwhile following the money.
I have listed just three horses here with very positive stats behind them, and in fact there are quite a few more “potentials” tomorrow. Could be a busy day for me!
That’s just about it from me today. I shall catch up with you again on Monday, and until then, have yourself a grand weekend.
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