Success really does leave clues
As well as applying trends analysis to specific races to find winners, we can also make use of trends to help us evaluate the chances of a particular horse in a given race.
Many horses can be shown to have a strong preference for racing under certain conditions. For example, they may prefer a particular distance, or going underfoot; they may prefer running left or right-handed, over a flat or undulating course; they may run more confidently in large or small fields; some horses run better after a recent race whilst others need a break between races; certain horses run better at particular times of the year.
I enjoy burying my head in past results figures to uncover patterns in a horse’s winning form. I know perhaps I should get out more, but it does lead to more than a few profitable bets.
Let me give you an example…
THE SAWYER
10-y-o (28 Feb 2000) ch g
This is a ten year old chestnut gelding trained by Robert Buckler. He won the Group 3 Betfair Trophy Chase Handicap at Cheltenham last season, as well as the Victor Chandler Handicap Chase at Ascot. When looking at a horse and his potential as a trends horse, first I will examine his career form figures by race type….
Race Type
National Hunt Flat: 123 (1 out of 3)
Hurdles: 258442115769 (2 out of 12)
Chase: 5623133U5411545F262U911399 (5 out of 26)
Verdict: He performs over hurdles and the bigger fences.
….then by distance….
Distance
2miles – 2miles 2½f 123 (1 out of 3)
2miles 3f – 2miles 5f 25411762312199 (4 out of 14)
2miles 5½f and further 8425956133U541545F62U913 (3 out of 24)
Verdict: Although he has won twice over 3 miles his best distance would appear to be around two and a half miles.
….then by going….
Going
Good to firm: No runs
Good: 263F99 (0 out of 6)
Good to soft: 125449523355293 (1 out of 15)
Soft: 382161U4126U11 (5 out of 14)
Heavy: 157154 (2 out of 6)
Verdict: He much prefers soft or heavy going. His only win on anything approaching good ground was in a bumper race at Towcester way back in March 2004.
….lastly, I look at his performances at different times of the year….
Month
January: 81161111 (6 out of 
February: 523543 (0 out of 6)
March: 171359 (2 out of 6)
April: 263F29 (0 out of 6)
May/June: 6 (0 out of 1)
July/August: No runs
September/October: No runs
November/December: 32544295U542U9 (0 out of 14)
Verdict: His record shows he is at his best during January.
Conclusion: When racing on soft or heavy going his past form reads 382115761U4115426U11 (35% strike rate) and this improves to 81161111 (75% strike rate) during January.
In my notes against The Sawyer preceding last year’s National Hunt season, I entered “(Oct 2009) Soft or heavy, 2m3f to 3m, January only.”
(click on image to view full size)
He ran over his preferred soft or heavy going only three times last season, and two of these occasions were in January. The result… two wins, first at Ascot at 8/1 then a week later at Cheltenham at 11/2
Each year I draw up my own personal list of horses I wish to follow throughout the season. I then apply this method of statistical analysis to each horse, and attempt to identify any strong trends in its previous winning form. When each of my chosen horses is due to run, I simply check to see whether today’s race presents a suitable opportunity for the horse to win. If conditions are not in his favour, then I will tend to swerve any bet.
Alternatively, and provided the price and therefore the liability is low enough, I may decide to lay the horse to lose on the betting exchanges. Either way, it has proven valuable to have this additional information to hand when weighing up a potential bet.
Of course, this method is not an exact science…. we rely upon historical trends continuing, and there will always be occasions when a horse bucks the trends in his previous form. But overall I have found this strategy to help me avoid many losing bets. Making a profit from betting long term is just as much about limiting your losses as picking lots of winners.
Will I Make A Lot Of Money From Following Trends Horses?
At this point, I should set some expectations… I am not suggesting that trends analysis will miraculously give you the ‘midas touch’ and that you now have the keys to a life-changing income. Many (in fact the majority) of the horses given the proverbial ’green light’ by my analysis still fail to win. But on the other hand, you will find more than your fair share of winners with this strategy, and furthermore you will find yourself avoiding more losers.
If you are diligent in finding the best prices about your selections, I would expect you to see your investment in stakes more than covered by your winnings.
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Want to find out more about my Horses To Follow?
Most seasons I will be following the fortunes of at least one hundred horses throughout the season. If you do not have the time, nor indeed the inclination to check your daily paper or the Racing Post each day to follow this number of horses, and then check to see whether today’s race is one they are likely to win, then I can do all the heavy lifting for you.
My service at TrendHorsesToFollow.com advises members whenever one of our horses is running that day. A quick check against my notes for that particular horse will help you decide whether to proceed with a bet, leave the horse to run, or to bet against him to lose.
Click Here To Visit TrendHorsesToFollow.com
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