Juggling the number of betting systems, strategies, and methods in your portfolio is a constant but ultimately rewarding task (if you’re prepared to stick at it). Personally, I don’t subscribe to the idea of following one ‘silver-bullet’ system. Largely because I don’t believe such a miracle system exists…. all horse racing systems and methods go through cycles of profitability.
I find it less stressful, and much easier to remain disciplined, when I’m operating more than one strategy at a time.
Many punters are forever in search of that one ultimate betting system they like to think of as the Holy Grail. They hope to find something that produces winners every day, and makes a constant profit, week in, and week out.
In reality – at least in my experience – such a system does not exist. Betting systems suffer frustrating losing runs, and if they make a profit at all, it’s returned in a largely unpredictable manner.
It makes sense to smooth out all the peaks and troughs by developing a portfolio of methods and strategies that together produce a net profit at the end of any significant period.
That said, the more methods you employ, the more time-consuming it all becomes. I know someone who has more than twenty different strategies in his portfolio. Although it works for him, it’s too much like hard work for me!
So the smart punter will develop a number of systems and strategies, that he can manage comfortably, that also match his betting temperament, and fit in with his schedule. Currently I focus upon six betting strategies for horse racing, and you can read more about each of them below….
1. Applying Trends Analysis
Trends analysis can be employed to great effect when evaluating the Classics, the big championship contests at the Festivals, the Group and Graded races, the Listed races, and the major handicaps throughout the season. Horse racing trends work best with races that have been run more than a few times. The more results, historical facts and figures we have to work with, the more dependable our evaluations will be, and these races are generally steeped in history.
2. Developing Micro-Niche Betting Systems
Most people will be familiar with the idea of using a set of ‘rules’ to establish a selection in a horse race. Using rules, parameters and filters allows us to develop ‘systems’ for picking horses, and these systems can vary in complexity from the most simple, to those that become very involved. Whether simple or complex, betting systems are a marvellous time-saving tool, for they allow you to quickly reduce a daunting list of typically dozens upon dozens of runners on a given day, to a far more manageable shortlist of potential bets.
3. Following Trend Horses
As well as applying trends analysis to specific races to find winners, we can also make use of trends to help us evaluate the chances of a particular horse in a given race. Many horses can be shown to have a strong preference for racing under certain conditions. For example, they may prefer a particular distance, or going underfoot; they may prefer running left or right-handed, over a flat or undulating course; they may run more confidently in large or small fields; some trend horses run better after a recent race whilst others need a break between races; certain horses run better at particular times of the year.
4. Using Speed Ratings On The All-Weather Tracks
Speed ratings have been a cornerstone of my betting strategies for more than ten years. Speed ratings allow a horse race analyst to assign a numerical figure to each horse in a given race, which represents the horse’s ability and fitness, based upon the times it has run previously. By using standard times for each track as a baseline, and a relatively simple process of calculation, all performances can be compared, at every distance and across all classes of competition. By using horse speed ratings you can quickly narrow down a field to the key contenders, and then establish a clear and factual picture of how each horse compares to it’s rivals. This is something that bare form data on it’s own cannot do.
5. Employing Value Horse Analysis
The subject of ‘value’ has been bounced around for years in gambling circles. On the one side there are those who say that every and any winner has value, because it won and winning is all that matters, regardless of what price you get. Whilst on the other side of the fence are stood those punters who are happy to miss winners and back losers, as long as their bets represent ‘value’. Their argument is that in the long run this is a profitable strategy. So exactly what is ‘value’ when it comes to betting? In simple terms value betting is when you take odds about a horse that are higher than the true odds of that horse actually winning.
6. Laying Horses To Lose
On the face of it, you could be forgiven for thinking that picking horses that lose is as easy as falling off a log…. I mean, we’ve all backed plenty of losers haven’t we? But anyone who has tried to profit from laying horses to lose knows to their disappointment that it is no walk in the park. However, the fact remains that picking winners is an inaccurate science, and as a strategy betting against horses at the very least gives you the opportunity to be ‘right’ more times than you are ‘wrong’.
