It’s the end of another week fellow TIPs, and I’ve been reminded twice in the last seven days that there is no such thing as free money, a dead cert, a steering job, nor a banker. More on that later, but first let me tell you what’s coming up in today’s post. With the Cheltenham Festival less than a month away, this week end is the last chance for most Prestbury-Park-bound horses to get in a final prep run. So I’m going to preview one of tomorrow’s big races, and I’ve got a live contender at 20/1 for you. I’ve also got a few trends horses you might want to put in your notebook for the week end as they have been highlighted by my analysis. Finally, I’ve got another topical track you may not have heard for a while.
So what’s been happening to the Cheltenham big shots this week? First Denman crashes through the birch last Saturday in the Aon Chase, and dumps Tony McCoy on the floor. The bookies will have heaved a sigh of relief as the favourite failed to get home at odds of 6/1 odds on. And then yesterday Zaynar, outright favourite for the Champion Hurdle, is beaten at Kelso at 14/1 odds on. 14/1 odds on! Who takes those kind of bets? And who offers those kind of prices? Those grinning bookmakers of course. On both occasions punters must have thought they were simply buying money, but if only backing horses over obstacles were that simple. It’s not as if Denman hasn’t fallen foul of a fence before either. I hope a few people learned a lesson.
Here are my thoughts on the Blue Square Gold Cup Chase run at Haydock tomorrow, and some of the leading contenders.
There will not be any 100/1 available about last year’s Grand National winner Mon Mome before the race, although it’s likely you may get matched at that price in running, as I don’t think he will enjoy the likely heavy going at Haydock. He has run three times since the National and the last two times have been unsuccessful in testing ground.
On the other hand David Pipe’s horse Our Vic has shown he can handle tacky ground, by winning here at Haydock a month ago in the Peter Marsh Chase. He was given a mark of 167 for that run which would have been good enough to win the last nine renewals of this race. If he can re-produce that kind of form again then the forecast 20/1 is very generous.
Ballyfitz from the Nigel Twiston Davies yard is I think a bit out of his depth. Over fences he has so far only recorded two wins, both in novice chase company. To win this race would represent a career best performance by far.
Philip Hobbs saddles Dream Alliance who won the Welsh National at the end of December. Winning around the testing course at Chepstow suggests he should have no problem getting the trip around the flat course at Haydock, and he is a live contender in my opinion.
The last horse I’m considering is Silver By Nature trained by Lucinda Russell. He finished a close second to Dream Alliance in the Welsh National and is two pounds better off for this race. I think 2lbs is neither here nor there so to pick who will come out on top in this race will depend who has the better day. It goes without saying Silver By Nature is also in with a good chance.
The market will doubtless favour the leading pair from the Welsh National, but I cannot ignore the likely high price on offer for Our Vic. If he can repeat the calibre of his last run here at Haydock he will be fighting out the finish.
My selection: Our Vic forecast 20/1
Profitable trends
Here’s three horses from my ‘niche betting’ file, running tomorrow at Ascot and Haydock. Research into the most obscure niches can sometimes reveal profitable trends that 99% of punters thumbing through the Racing Post will be completely unaware of.
Ascot 2:45 Beshabar – trainer has a 54.6% strike rate with horses returning to the track within 5 days of their last run, and backing these has returned a profit of +52.2%
Ascot 4:55 Sprinter Sacre – trainer’s record with fancied debutants in bumpers with a single figure price is a strike rate of 37.8% and a profit of +44.6%
Haydock 4:45 Suntini – when trainer saddles a horse who won last time out over hurdles or fences, between the months of Spetember and April, she has a strike rate of 31.6% and backing these horse has yielded a profit of +65.4%
And finally, if we’re talking about free money, there could only be one track I could possibly sign off with today. Back in the 80’s only two men could wear a headband a get away with it…. John McEnroe, and Mark Knopfler. So here is Mr Knopfler, and a few friends you may recognise….
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