But now I’m not so sure.

With the Cheltenham Festival just two short weeks away, I have to confess I find myself a-dithering. I want to jump off, but someone must have just painted this fence I am sitting on, because I appear to be stuck.

I find myself perched, my fellow TIP’s, upon the horns of a dilemma, and it’s getting painful. In fact, technically I’m not 100% sure it can be called a dilemma, as my particular problem has three horns, so if there is such a thing my puzzle could be described as a trilemna! Whatever it be called, I am squirming in my seat like a politician at an expenses enquiry.

UOSKRAATT…. It’s a Gold Cup conundrum. In January I had a strong opinion of my favourite for the showpiece at Cheltenham. I was firmly routed in the Kauto Star camp. However, as curtain-up approaches I’m trying to maintain my strong opinion and I find I can’t…. because I now have three strong opinions and they are each vying for my attention.

My original opinion was that Kauto Star deserves to be at the top of the market for the Gold Cup and is one of the finest chasers I have ever seen. I was at Kempton over Christmas to see him annihilate the King George field, taking thirty six lengths out of his nearest rival within the length of the finishing straight.

My second opinion is that Denman deserves to be second favourite for the Gold Cup and is one of the finest chasers I’ve ever seen. His performance when conceding such a weight to his rivals when taking the Hennessy at Newbury in muddy conditions was nothing less than awesome; but I still think Kauto Star is a better horse.

My third opinion, is that Imperial Commander does not deserve to be favourite nor second favourite for the Gold Cup but isn’t far behind the other two. And quite frankly, I like this horse.

The Cheltenham Gold Cup has long been showcased as a duel between Kauto Star and Denman. At the beginning of the year both were equal favourites for the title of Champion staying chaser. But then Denman shot AP McCoy out the side door at Newbury in the Aon Chase. Kauto Star is now odds on, and you can back Denman at 7/2 and even 4/1 with William Hill as the author writes this. Imperial Commander is generally 10/1

What to do?

My heart still tells me Kauto Star will win, but I cannot have him at odds on. Meanwhile, the thinking side of my character says Denman has to hope Kauto Star is not firing on all cylinders on the day to win, but at 4/1 perhaps there is now considerable value in that particilar proposition.

What to do indeed! As a result of these inner churnings, my anticipation of the Festival has reached new heights.

Of one thing I remain steadfastly certain…. I love horse racing because it is one true theatre for debate. Lets look at Denman as a prime example of a horse who can divide and polarize opinions. There is a school of thought that suggests that the only way to enter into the steeple-chasing Hall Of Fame is to carry top weight to victory in a prestigious handicap. Denman has been there, and in fact done that, twice. The other half will retort that to gain immortality a horse must prove himself in a championship race at level weights. Well Denman can rightly tick that box as well. And then the other half (is that now three halves?) of which I include myself, suggest in all probability he will not win the Gold Cup.

I have to take my hat off to Denman and his connections for the way he has been so boldly campaigned, given his prior health issues. I think it is testament to the trainer, and the owners Harry Findlay and Paul Barber, to recognise that the betting public and racing enthusiasts all have a desire to see a great horse tested to his extraordinary limits. He has shirked very few issues in a solid career, but if today’s ante-post market for the Gold Cup is anything to go by he clearly still has a little way to go to win over everybody. Myself included…. even though the 4/1 is sitting there like a piece of chocolate cake, just tempting me to take a bite.

The great thing about this season’s Gold Cup at Cheltenham, even though it has been hyped to the rafters, is that most agree it is going to be a belter! And who is to say that one of the underdogs will not defy all expectations and grab the glory from the two main protagonists? Imperial Commander?

Have your say. Who do you think will win the Cheltenham Gold Cup? Leave your thoughts in the comments below.

As someone who discusses horse racing on a blog, talks about betting systems, and provides a horse racing handicapping service, it will not surprise you to hear that I’m often asked for tips. Most of my friends know what I do for a living, and when we are down the pub, out on a cycle ride, or even if I’m stood at school of an afternoon to pick up the boys and I bump into one of the other school Dads, the topic of conversation will invariably turn to “got any tips for tomorrow?”

Whilst I have never been too comfortable giving hard and fast tips on individual races, I have always been happy to offer some general advice that can produce more winners and reduce the number of avoidable losing bets. I believe sensible strategic advice is something you can charge for, but I’m afraid I don’t have the confidence to ask people for money for my opinion as a professional tipster.

That said, these tips are the top three that I have learned in more than 10 years battling against the bookmakers, and latterly the exchange players. You may well disagree with the meritable order of them, and perhaps you will consider some ‘golden rules’ of your own more important. That of course is your opinion, and as you know, all opinions are most welcome here at SkyBlueKangaroo.com.

These three tips are the most important to me, and I owe each a debt of gratitude for helping me gain just the slightest of edges when playing the horses.

TOP TIP #1 First up, and Tip Number One is actually about life. Trying to earn a living at the races is tough, real tough. Whilst betting on horse racing can be great fun, especially when at the track, and with some sound strategies and the help of a following wind even profitable, it can also be soul destroying and an emotional drain. If you do it month in, month out for a living, it can also be boring at times. In reality, working hard to come out ahead by betting on horses is a million miles from the millionnaire lifestyle portrayed by “those” betting system sellers. Sorry if it isn’t as glamorous as you thought, but that’s the way it is. I still love handicapping horse races and playing them for profit, and I couldn’t go back to a ‘proper job’. And that’s assuming someone would be insane enough to employ me! It’s crucial you love what you do, otherwise you would struggle to succeed long term.

TOP TIP #2 Next, and Tip Number Two is about playing the horses in general. You will NEVER ever beat the races. But you CAN succeed, one race at a time, and one bet at a time. Horse race handicapping and betting on horses is an intellectual challenge, so it’s crucial you choose the races you play carefully, and pay attention to the many factors that can affect the outcome of a race. You would be wise to get into the habit of approaching each race on its individual merits, but learn to keep the big picture in mind as well. Each and every race is important,  but remain emotionally detached and refrain from going on tilt when you lose a bet. If a race doesn’t pan out how you expected, you need to accept this will always happen, and you will never be right every time. The very best professional punters lose many of their bets.

I often motivate myself through a bad patch by thinking about the sport of baseball, in particular, batting averages. More often than not, even the very best major league baseball players fail to hit the ball when they step up to the plate. In fact, a player with a 0.333 average will be considered “good” even though they only hit the ball once every three attempts! Think about it, he fails twice as much as he succeeds, and he is considered “good” at what he does! You will also lose more than you win, but the trade secret is to win enough times, at the right prices, to make a profit, and that brings me to Tip Number Three.

TOP TIP #3 Tip Number Three concerns value betting and paying attention to what horses are paying to win. Have the discipline to shop for value odds on your chosen horse and never be consumed by the form of a horse to the exclusion of all else. No matter how much you might think your selection cannot lose given its figures, horses with outstanding form compared to their rivals still lose races. If your choice is your top rated and has a 50% chance of winning, you must still get better than odds of evens to make money on it. The ability to manage your money and your understanding of the financial side of betting and winning is a critical factor to your success, because if you lose all your money, your skills in race prediction will be academic.

I hope you find some value in each of these tips, but what is your one ‘Golden Rule’ when it comes to betting? Let me know your thoughts and leave a comment below.

Further reading:

How to cope with losing runs

I was approached recently by Aidan Collins who asked me if I would like to review his brand new service called Gold Lay. Now, usually it’s the other way around, and it’s me approaching the seller to see how willing they are to expose their product or service to close scrutiny. So how could I refuse Aidan’s confidence?

The service selects horses to lay, and by employing auto-software the qualifying bets are placed for subscribers less than one minute before the scheduled off-time of the race. The instructions explain that bets are only ever placed at odds between 2.00 and 3.00 so that’s even money and 2/1 in old money. In that case, liabilities on each bet should be relatively low, and that’s a comfort. But low liabilities does not guarantee a good system, and this is a tricky area of the market to maintain consistent profits.

Paul is watching this one...

If you get approached to buy into this service, the advice for now would be to keep your money in your pocket until the end of the month, and follow the progress of my review. But if you want to visit the web site to read more details in the meantime, then here is the link:

Visit the GoldLay web site

As usual, I will follow the service for a month, and then report with my initial observations, opinions, and comment.

Happy Friday fellow TIP’s, and welcome to another weekly wrap here on SkyBlueKangaroo. In my last post of February I’m going to be examining the big race of the weekend, the Racing Post Chase at Kempton tomorrow, and highlighting a few trends horses you may wish to keep an eye out for in other races. I’m doffing my hat in tribute to a sporting achiever, before signing off with another topical music track from years gone by that you may not have heard for a while.

First, the Racing Post Chase. For me it’s one of the best staying handicap chases outside the Cheltenham Festival, and is usually a valuable pointer towards the big Nationals later in the year. In an attempt to solve the puzzle I’m going to use some trends analysis to try and build a profile of the winning horse. Usually in big races such as this, the winner will share one, two, or more traits with the majority of previous winners. By examining past winners we can uncover form characteristics to look for in today’s runners, to try and narrow down the field.

The first statistic from previous renewals of the Racing Post Chase that cannot fail to be noticed, is that 10 from the last 11 winners had won their previous race. Apply this trend and we would lose all but Piraya and Fistral Beach, so perhaps I might come back to that one.

Another stat that struck me was that the longest price of the last 10 winners was 10/1 when Naccarat won last year. The race clearly favours those at the top end of the market, and surprises are uncommon. If we rule out any horses priced above 10/1 we lose Ollie Magern, Something Wells, Atouchbetweenacara, Razor Royale, Bible Lord, Piraya, Oedipe, Private Be, and Le Burf.

We are left with four horses.

The race would also appear to favour those classier horses carrying the most weight. In the last ten runnings, only Gunther McBride in 2002 has carried less than 10st 13lb to victory. If we apply that weight as the minimum then we can rule out Kilcrea Castle who is set to carry 10st 6lbs, and the Walsh/Nicholls horse Fistral Beach who will have but 10st on his back.

This leaves the likely favourite Nacarat, ridden by Tony McCoy, and David Pipe’s Madison Du Berlais with Tom Scudamore on board.

I’m going to stick my neck out on the outsider of the two, and nail my colours to the mast of Madison Du Berlais, in the hope he will bounce back from a lacklustre performance at Cheltenham last time out. On form he has the galloping speed to run his rivals into the ground, so with a truly run race I think he will be in their staking a claim to the race. Remember, without Kauto Star, he was the winner of the King George back at Christmas time, and on this track.

My selection: Madison Du Berlais forecast 9/1

Profitable trends

Here’s a couple of horses to keep an eye out for tomorrow. They have appeared on my radar as horses riding the crest of a profitable trend. By digging a little deeper, it is possible to unearth some lucrative sub-trends that most punters will be unaware of, simply because they have neither the time nor the inclination to do the research.

Chepstow 3:30 Hopeful Start – Trainer has a profitable return of +19.5% from horses aged 4-7yrs in handicap hurdles.

Kempton 3:40 Soldatino – trainer has a strike rate of 32.6% with 4yo debutants from November to March, and backing these has produced a return of +80.9%

Chapeau!

My victory salute this week goes to Amy Williams who last week end in Vancouver became the first solo Britain to take Gold in the Winter Olympics for thirty years. This is a girl mad enough to throw herself down a chute fashioned from ice, on what amounts to little more than a technical tea-tray, at speeds of around 80mph with her chin just a couple inches from the ice. Chapeau mademoiselle, chapeau!

To end on a Winter Olympics theme, I thought we could finish with Ice Ice Baby, by Robert Van Winkle (aka Vanilla Ice). This is the guy who apparently thought it was cool to dance around in clown’s trousers back in the early 90’s. The first hip hop record to top the billboard charts.

You may have asked yourself before now “If the bookmakers always stack the odds in their favour, what chance does a punter have of ever making a profit?”

Because of the over-round a bookmaker works into his “book”, it is hardly surprising that as many as 95% of punters fail to come out in front when betting the horses over the long term. The powerful High Street bookmakers employ the very best odds compilers who are experts at estimating the true chances of a horse winning a race, setting prices, and locking in a profit margin.

Nevertheless, horse racing can never be 100% statistically quantifiable, in the sense that cards or other forms of casino gambling can be. Games such as roulette and blackjack are governed by simple rules of probability. For example, my chance of winning on number 18 on the roulette wheel is undeniably one-in-thirty seven. Whereas the true chance of Kauto Star winning the Cheltenham Gold Cup is debatable – because it is based upon opinion.

And if I think I know what his chances are, what gives me the right to say my estimate is more accurate than the bookmaker’s?

The answer to this question will come only after time, with experience, and by immersing yourself in the sport and its betting markets. The good news is that bookmakers are human, and like all humans, they make mistakes. Admittedly they do not make them in every race, every day of the week, but nonetheless they do have errors in judgement. The trick of course, as a knowledgeable bettor, is to be able to spot these errors, and pounce upon them.

A good example, although in a different sport, was when William Hill went a crazy 200/1 about Primoz Peterka, a Slovenian ski jumper, to win the opening ski jumping World Cup competition of the 2002/03 season in Finland. This price was offered despite the fact that he had won the qualifying competition the night before, and was clearly in form. Furthermore he had been double world champion in previous seasons. The true odds for him to win were more likely around 10/1 and this is how most of the rival bookmakers had him in their books. This was a glaring example of the price being far too high compared to the actual chance of winning. As an aside, Peterka won, William Hill ceased offering odds for the ski jumping World Cup shortly thereafter, and I’m sure someone would have left the William Hill building with his P45 that day!

Of course, such large mistakes are very rare, and it’s the smaller pricing errors the professional punter will go in search of every day in order to earn his living. But make no mistake, the only way to profit from betting long term is to seek out and take advantage of value bets where the odds are in favour of the bettor.

Punters adopt many different strategies to gain that crucial edge over the market. Some will employ a mathematical approach by using race rating systems which analyse past performance in order to predict future outcomes. Others will spend hours each week delving into form books and internet sites to avail themselves with as much information as they can about a particular race. This may include news from inside the stable or from observers on the training gallops. Others may base their decisions on nothing more than a subjective feel for the upcoming race, relying upon their experience and perhaps a hunch about how the race will unfold. And finally there are those punters who pay others to do the calculating, form study, and thinking for them, by subscribing to tipster services.

There is no right or wrong way to seek a betting edge. At the end of the day, the best one is the one that works for you, and hopefully one that returns a profit. However, a word of caution when following a professional service…. basic economics and common sense should tell you that the more punters there are backing the same horse ‘tipped’ to win, the smaller the opportunity to secure value. Much better to have your own unique angle to selecting horses, and avoid sharing the value that might be available.

What any successful approach has in common with other methods, is a shared goal of finding ‘value’ in the odds and prices, where the actual chance of a horse winning is greater than that estimated by the bookmaker or the market on the betting exchanges. The vast majority of punters are ignorant of the importance of value betting. They generally think that to win at betting you just need to pick more winners. A short-priced winner is better than the horse at 20/1 that loses, right? Well, yes, but as a winning punter the trick is to make your decision before the event, and make the right decision at the right price, enough times to ensure a profit.

A genuine value bettor is typically unconcerned about backing a horse other than the favourite. The favourite is more often than not the horse with the best chance of winning, yet the value in the race is often in backing horses more likely to lose. Backing horses with a price that suggests a 10% chance of winning, ie 9/1 when the true chance is 20% and 4/1 makes sense. They will not always win, but they will win enough times at generous prices to see you collect more money than you stake.

It may seem counter-intuitive to back a horse you do not think will win, but probability will guarantee you a profit nonetheless, if you consistently back horses at prices higher than they should be.

The genuine value bettor does not think in terms of one single race, but rather, “If the same race were run 100 times, which horse would I want to back at the prices offered.?”

Since odds are just a way of expressing probabilities, value betting provides the only way to beat the bookmaker over the long haul. Your average punter can back as many ‘winners’ as he likes, but if he ignores the prices and therefore the risk-reward ratios, then his winnings may not be enough to return a profit. The successful bettor will be prepared for his fair share of losing bets and bad luck stories, but he will alway be encouraged by the value bettors’ motto “Find the value, and the winners will take care of themselves.”

I had a system for laying horses to lose sent in to me recently by one of my readers. Big Al (as he has asked to be known) from the West Midlands originally suggested to me that using a particular selection method for laying horses had given him profits in the past, so I asked him to follow his system for a month, and show me the results.

The rules for this system are as follows:

1. Look for races with 14 or more runners.

2. Make sure the race is no longer than 2m 5f

3. Select and lay the CLEAR favourite.

4. Make sure the odds are between 2/1 and 15/2

….and that’s it! The system can be applied to any code, Flat, National Hunt, or the all-weather.

These are the race favourites selected to lose by this system recently, and how they fared:

Jan 19 Alpha Way 4/1 LOST, Moonstreaker 5/2 LOST, Mount Helicon 3/1 LOST
Jan 21 Be My Light 3/1 LOST
Jan 22 Cross Compliance 9/2 LOST, Vannin 9/4 LOST, Isle De Maurice 11/4 LOST
Jan 24 Resentful Angel 10/3 LOST, Rothres 3/1 LOST
Jan 27 Action Impact 85/40 LOST, Victory Surge 7/2 LOST
Feb 4 Gentle Caribou 10/3 LOST
Feb 5 Warrior One 2/1 LOST
Feb 6 River D’Or 9/2 LOST, Shadrack 11/4 LOST, Leos Lucky Star 3/1 LOST, Attaglance 7/2 LOST
Feb 7 Stoneys Treasure 7/2 LOST
Feb 8 Quick Live 2/1 LOST
Feb 9 Vivarni 3/1 LOST
Feb 11 Granakey 3/1 LOST, The Mouse Carroll 9/2 LOST
Feb 12 Lepido 9/2 LOST, Over The Flow 11/4 LOST
Feb 13 Cairnsmore 9/4 LOST, Mamlook 11/2 LOST
Feb 14 Just Playful 5/1 LOST, Thievery 9/2 LOST, Rebel du Maquis 85/40 LOST
Feb 16 Kingsdale Orion 5/2 LOST, Luksar 4/1 LOST, Lockedinthepocket 7/2 LOST
Feb 18 Dare Me 5/2 WON

Big Al was getting excited and thought he was going to go the full test with a 100% record, but was just foiled with the last selection winning.

It should be pointed out that all prices are to SP and NOT Betfair odds. The profit amounted to 30.5 points.

These are pretty impressive results BUT a word of caution…. most of the jumps selections have been running on ground worse than soft. Improving ground conditions may result in not such a good return as this.

Big Al told me he found that placing the lay bets had to be done just prior to the ‘off’ to take into account non-runners and flip-flopping favourites.

What do I think? Well, before you all rush off to lay any horses that meet with the criteria laid out above, I would reiterate Big Al’s observation that the current soft ground may have had a big influence on the figures. But there is no denying the results are good. I think it would be prudent to paper-trade this system for a couple of months, before making any decision to start laying at minimum stakes. What would also be interesting would be to make a note of the going against each result. Subsequent analysis of the results and profits returned over various ground conditions could indicate whether extremes of going improves the profitability.

At the very least you may have a system to keep on the back burner, that you can wheel out when the rains come and the ground gets soft or heavy.

If you have any systems you use, you have at least thirty days results to show, and you don’t mind sharing with readers of the blog, then drop me a line or leave a comment below.

Further reading:

Read my review of the Fancy Fillies laying system

Read my review of Betting Against Horses For Profit

The snow is back, fellow TIP’s, at least it is in Tring. I’m looking out from my cosy office set up here in deepest Hertfordshire, and the big snow flakes are swirling around. It doesn’t seem to be settling, but a venture out to the gym earlier this morning confirmed that it is still bl**dy cold! Both Market Rasen and Carlisle have been abandoned due to frozen ground, and the action today comes from our trusty friends the all weather tracks at Lingfield and Wolverhampton.

So, are we staring down the barrel of another frozen week here in the UK, with limited racing action? Maybe. Personally, I’m fed up to the back teeth with the weather. Fortunately, my major betting activities focus upon the all weather from November to March, so at least my betting bank has not been affected by the cold weather. But none-the-less, I like to get out to the courses a few times during the winter months to watch those glorious beasts jumping the birch. Just because my money is not dependent on any one horse, I still love the spectacle of jumps racing. I keep my fingers crossed that the forthcoming Festival does not suffer at the hands of Mr Jack Frost.

A brief glance back at the weekend racing. I featured the Blue Square Gold Cup Chase in my post on Friday, and highlighted the chances of Our Vic. I have to say I think he put in a fantastic performance under top weight. Danny Cook took him to the front and he had all but the eventual winner in trouble when they turned into the long finishing straight at Haydock. You might say he didn’t stay, but rather I prefer to think he was out-stayed by Silver By Nature. Nonetheless, a decent each-way success.

I also managed a couple of winners from the three trends horses I highlighted, with Beshabar winning the Betfair Handicap Hurdle at Ascot.

This week on SkyBlueKangaroo I have a laying system that was kindly sent in by one of my readers. He’s been testing it for a month, and initial results were promising. More on that tomorrow. I’ve got a feature on ‘value betting’ that I’m looking to post on Wednesday, and I also hope to introduce a new guest writer on Thursday. As usual on Friday I will be wrapping up the week, looking forward to the big races at the weekend, and digging up a topical retro track for your delictation. So, it’s looking like a busy week for Yours Truly and I hope you will enjoy what is to come.

It’s the end of another week fellow TIPs, and I’ve been reminded twice in the last seven days that there is no such thing as free money, a dead cert, a steering job, nor a banker. More on that later, but first let me tell you what’s coming up in today’s post. With the Cheltenham Festival less than a month away, this week end is the last chance for most Prestbury-Park-bound horses to get in a final prep run. So I’m going to preview one of tomorrow’s big races, and I’ve got a live contender at 20/1 for you. I’ve also got a few trends horses you might want to put in your notebook for the week end as they have been highlighted by my analysis. Finally, I’ve got another topical track you may not have heard for a while.

So what’s been happening to the Cheltenham big shots this week? First Denman crashes through the birch last Saturday in the Aon Chase, and dumps Tony McCoy on the floor. The bookies will have heaved a sigh of relief as the favourite failed to get home at odds of 6/1 odds on. And then yesterday Zaynar, outright favourite for the Champion Hurdle, is beaten at Kelso at 14/1 odds on. 14/1 odds on! Who takes those kind of bets? And who offers those kind of prices? Those grinning bookmakers of course. On both occasions punters must have thought they were simply buying money, but if only backing horses over obstacles were that simple. It’s not as if Denman hasn’t fallen foul of a fence before either. I hope a few people learned a lesson.

Here are my thoughts on the Blue Square Gold Cup Chase run at Haydock tomorrow, and some of the leading contenders.

There will not be any 100/1 available about last year’s Grand National winner Mon Mome before the race, although it’s likely you may get matched at that price in running, as I don’t think he will enjoy the likely heavy going at Haydock. He has run three times since the National and the last two times have been unsuccessful in testing ground.

On the other hand David Pipe’s horse Our Vic has shown he can handle tacky ground, by winning here at Haydock a month ago in the Peter Marsh Chase. He was given a mark of 167 for that run which would have been good enough to win the last nine renewals of this race. If he can re-produce that kind of form again then the forecast 20/1 is very generous.

Ballyfitz from the Nigel Twiston Davies yard is I think a bit out of his depth. Over fences he has so far only recorded two wins, both in novice chase company. To win this race would represent a career best performance by far.

Philip Hobbs saddles Dream Alliance who won the Welsh National at the end of December. Winning around the testing course at Chepstow suggests he should have no problem getting the trip around the flat course at Haydock, and he is a live contender in my opinion.

The last horse I’m considering is Silver By Nature trained by Lucinda Russell. He finished a close second to Dream Alliance in the Welsh National and is two pounds better off for this race. I think 2lbs is neither here nor there so to pick who will come out on top in this race will depend who has the better day. It goes without saying Silver By Nature is also in with a good chance.

The market will doubtless favour the leading pair from the Welsh National, but I cannot ignore the likely high price on offer for Our Vic. If he can repeat the calibre of his last run here at Haydock he will be fighting out the finish.

My selection: Our Vic forecast 20/1

Profitable trends

Here’s three horses from my ‘niche betting’ file, running tomorrow at Ascot and Haydock. Research into the most obscure niches can sometimes reveal profitable trends that 99% of punters thumbing through the Racing Post will be completely unaware of.

Ascot 2:45 Beshabar – trainer has a 54.6% strike rate with horses returning to the track within 5 days of their last run, and backing these has returned a profit of +52.2%

Ascot 4:55 Sprinter Sacre – trainer’s record with fancied debutants in bumpers with a single figure price is a strike rate of 37.8% and a profit of +44.6%

Haydock 4:45 Suntini – when trainer saddles a horse who won last time out over hurdles or fences, between the months of Spetember and April, she has a strike rate of 31.6% and backing these horse has yielded a profit of +65.4%

And finally, if we’re talking about free money, there could only be one track I could possibly sign off with today. Back in the 80’s only two men could wear a headband a get away with it…. John McEnroe, and Mark Knopfler. So here is Mr Knopfler, and a few friends you may recognise….

MY RATING: 4.0 out of 5

I started following this laying system Betting Against Horses For Profit by Henry McAnenly at the beginning of December, and I can now give some initial comments. I wanted to follow the system until I had at least thirty days worth of results to analyze before expressing my initial feelings, and here we are, a little over two months later. So the first thing to say is that the method is quite selective in its approach, and does not highlight bets each and every day of the week. In my book being selective is no bad thing.

Let me start by giving some background. As the name suggests, Betting Against Horses For Profit is a method of selecting horses to oppose on the betting exchanges, and lay to lose their race. It has been developed by Henry McAnenly with whom many of you may already be familiar. Indeed, another of his betting guides Going The Extra Mile is in my ‘recommended’ list. Henry writes a fair bit on horse racing and has published a few other guides before now.

 The system is delivered as a PDF document and stretches to thirty one pages. There are several pages of introductory text before the reader is presented with the nuts and bolts of how the system is operated. But to be fair it is not the usual ‘fluff’ and garbage that we are used to reading, ie. the history of horse racing, how to place a bet, different types of bet, how to open an account at Betfair, what a horse looks like, and more such irrelevent prose which is only there to somehow justify the price tag. In this instance the author goes to the trouble of explaining the background and logic to how the system was developed. I think this actually serves to give purpose to the whole strategy and also gives the reader a degree of confidence that some thought had gone into the method beforehand. Most system sellers are extremely lazy in their approach, and simply back-fit a few filters to suit their needs, rather than research an angle to find a genuine edge.

The reader arrives at the “How It Works” chapter on Page Nine and the rules are clearly described over the course of the next fifteen pages. That is not to say the system is incredibly complicated, but the author takes us through three distinct phases of selection, before we arrive at any final bets. The text is also nicely illustrated with screen shots and other graphics to make the method easier to follow.

Without giving the game away, Betting Against Horses For Profit identifies horses that are race favourites but at the same time vulnerable to defeat. The most likely value to be found when laying horses is invariably with the favourite, so I was pleased to see this was not another unrealistic system suggesting the user should lay outsiders and look to achieve 95-99% strike rates. By focusing on the favourites we can at least keep liabilities to a minimum, which should also help keep the heart rate under control. The author does focus on obtaining value, and the price available about the horse you want to lay is taken into consideration. Again, anything that steers the user towards placing value bets gets a big tick in my book.

One thing to bear in mind is that this system uses information from the Racing Post. If you are using the online version then you will need to be a member of the site, which does mean shelling out a subscription of £7.50 each month. A lot of you are already in the Racing Post Members Club and so this news is irrelevent, but I think it’s only right to point this extra cost out to those of you that are not members, and may be interested in purchasing Henry’s book. From a personal perspective, I think that the Racing Post web site provides tremendous value, and access to a great depth of racing information for the price. If you are halfway serious about your betting, then it’s a notional payment for a tool that helps you to accomplish your goals.

So how did this system perform whilst under my watchful gaze? Well it returned a profit, and a very decent profit at that.

This is a summary of the results:

 Number of selections: 53

Winning bets: 41

Strike rate: 77%

Profit/loss: +23.71pts

I took into account a 5% commission on winning bets.

These figures suggest that for every selection you make, you could expect to see 0.45 points profit. This is a very high positive expectancy, but I would suggest you take this with a pinch of salt, as that is extremely good. In all probability I think I captured a sample of selections that performed above average. But the results are nonetheless very encouraging.

SUMMARY

Passed!

Betting Against Horses For Profit is a system to highlight horses to lay on the betting exchanges like Betfair. The method identifies race favourites, or at least horses that are favourite at the time the user works the selection process. More often than not the horse selected would also be the favourite at the time of the race, but a number of selections did drift noticeably in price. Of course this would give you the opportunity to hedge your bets, lock in a profit, or secure free lay bets, if you so wished.

The system works in quite a selective manner, and does not highlight bets every day. Over the course of the two months I was trialling the system, it provided thirty days of betting action, and returned a profit a fraction over 23 points. I will take this opportunity to stress that I have only got a sample of 53 selections. At that rate, I would want to see twelve months of results before committing full stakes. By that time I would expect to have around 300 results, which would constitute a significant sample statistically.

But I would definitely suggest this laying system is worthy of further evaluation. It currently costs just £7.00 so at that price it’s a no-brainer if you like lay betting systems. Many of you will use mechanical systems such as this to give you a daily short-list of horses for further analysis, before finalising your own bets. If you prefer to follow rules-based selection systems blindly, then my advice would be to paper-trade this particular example for a minimum two months. If the results are similar to my trial, then you can decide to begin investing at minimal stakes. But as I previously suggested, I would prefer to have a full twelve months results under my belt before increasing stakes and elevating this system to a full Portfolio status. But the initial indications are this is a laying system with an edge. Go and buy it.

In case anyone was wondering, I haven’t fallen off the face of the earth. I’m back, glad to be back, but a disgruntled customer of British Telecom nonetheless. I’ll tell you why I’ve been offline for two weeks further down the page, I’m going to briefly recap on the racing at the weekend, including “that” tumble at Newbury, then give you a preview of what I have planned for SkyBlueKangaroo this week.

OK, where were we? I do believe I was going to report back on an evening of networking with a few other internet scribes. Well, that was the plan, but then in stepped British Telecom. All I wanted to do was move my telephone and broadband from one line to another. The guy on the Business Sales Team was very helpful, very reassuring, very persuasive. But then I guess that is why he works in the sales department, and not in customer services.

Is it me, or does anyone else find that once someone has your credit card number, they suddenly lose all interest in your welfare? No more “Hello Mr Whelan, how has your day been?” In fact a simple “Hello” would have been great! But I’ll get to that in a minute. I had been given Friday 5th as my installation day. I was told I would not even be aware of the change over…. it would be “instantaneous”.

But when I got to my desk on the Friday morning, no line tone! No telephone, and no internet connection!

There then ensued much time on the mobile phone trying to get to the bottom of the seemingly simple change of line. How come the Sales Department pick up the phone after two rings, yet Customer Services always seem to be experiencing an “unusually high volume of calls”?

Long story short, it appeared that BT cut off my old line, and it has taken until the week end just gone to get the new line operational. Just a single new line. Goodness only knows how they manage anything slightly complicated. But what has really got my back up, is how in the eyes of the company you seem to morph from an important potential customer, to something you try to scrape off the bottom of your shoe, just as soon as you make your payment?

I guess I should be used to it… I’ve bought more than a few betting systems in the past, and been treated the same by some scumbag sellers. But not by a FTSE 100 company. Rant over!

On the evening before the start of the British Telecom fiasco, I had the pleasure of meeting up with some fellow internet marketers and blog writers from the horse racing and betting niche. Going around the table there was Graham Laurie from the CashMaster Blog, Matt Watson from Favourites Phenomenon, Matt Nesbitt from Oxfordshire Press, Matt Bisogno from GeeGeez.co.uk, and me. Clearly my mother and father missed a trick when they named me Paul…. obviously you stand a better cahnce of success online if you are called ”Matt”.

Seriously, it was a lively evening of banter as well as an opportunity to bounce ideas off of a few experienced sounding boards. I’m pleased to say there is a lot in the pipleline by way of products and services, aimed at helping the betting public enjoy a flutter whilst avoiding the charlatans who would sell their own granny. Several pints of Guinness and a large Jack Daniels later, it was time to board the late train out of smokey to Tring. Thanks guys and I look forward to our next business meeting.

I’ve mentioned the gremlins, and the Guinness, but what are these grinding gears to which I refer in the title of this post?

Well, to cap what had already been an extremely frustrating week, I went out for a ride on my bike with my cycling buddies a week ago Sunday, and my gears starting slipping. The chain was slipping off the largest rear cog. Anyone who rides a bike will be aware that the largest cog gives you your lowest gear… the easy gear you rely on when faced with a tough incline. So I had to grind my way up the hills in a higher gear than I would have liked, and completely sh*gged myself out after twenty miles. The trouble was, we were doing thirty miles, and I had suffered what is technically known as a “bonk”. No energy left. I was a forlorn figure weakly rolling the last ten miles home back to Tring.

I’m sorry if so far this post is a little on the negative side, and I sound like a grumpy old man. That’s enough now. The phone lines are working, and I’ve got the bike fixed. And I had a bonus piece of good fortune on Saturday.

Similar to most horse racing fans, I was looking forward to watching the mighty Denman in action in the Aon Chase at Newbury. His final prep run before the Gold Cup at Cheltenham, and his showdown with Kauto Star. Surely this would just be a formality? At six to one odds on to back Denman, what was the bet going to be? I had my money on Tricky Trickster each way to fill the runners up spot, so I was a rather fortnunate benefactor when Denman ploughed through the birch to unseat Mr McCoy. We punters suffer many bad beats at the race track each year, so it’s nice to be on the receiving end of a bit of good fortune evey now and then.

Happily Denman seems to have come through the race unscathed, and ironically he may well have done his supporters a favour as his price for the Gold Cup has eased, and offers some value. But his mishap on Saturday just goes to show that the obstacles are there to be jumped, and even the best can get it wrong. Incidentally, I am still in the Kauto Star camp, but I’m not smug, as KS has been known to cause punters to break out in a sweat at the last fence before now. Roll on the festival.

So what is in store this week at SkyBlueKangaroo? My final review of Betting Against Horses For Profit is complete, and ready to be posted. I’ve got what I think is an interesting piece on speed figures to put up. And on Friday I shall be previewing the racing for the coming weekend, which includes the Blue Square Gold Cup at Haydock, the Ascot Chase, and the Kingwell Hurdle.

I got rubbed up the wrong way by British Telecom. Do you have any stories of customer service failure? Have you been ever made to feel a third rate human being, much less a customer, nor were you categorically NOT given the service you expected? Leave your comments below.