OUR RATING: 5 out of 5
False Favourites is a guide to laying horses to lose, and written by Betfair Accredited Trainer Jonathan Burgess. Towards the end of last year Jon updated the guide and gave it a fresh face to bring it in line with recent changes to the Racing Post web site.
So what can you expect when you pay your money and see the email from Jon with your download?
The first thing I want to stress is that False Favourites is not a regimented ‘rules’ system. You will not be able to refer to this book, apply a set of strict rules to the day’s racing cards, and come up with a defined list of selections. Place one hundred punters in a room with this guide and ask them to write down their selections to lay for that day, and you would not receive one hundred identical lists of horses.
False Favourites is a guide to laying horses, and I would be inclined to describe it much more a ‘method’ than a system. That is not to detract from the value of this book in any way, in fact I would go so far as to say it is a ‘must read’ for any aspiring punter. It will teach you how to systematically approach each day’s racing and arrive at a short-list of candidates for laying.
The key word in that last paragraph is the word ‘teach’. False Favourites will teach you as much about analysing a race as any other book I have come across.
But it will not allow you to simply feed in a few bits of form data from the Racing Post, and spit out a couple of selections ten minutes later for you to blindly lay on Betfair. The reader is required to apply some thought to the whole process.
Those of you with perhaps neither the time nor the inclination to put any thought into their selections to bet, should read no further, this book is not for you.
But if you are still on board, let me tell you more about the book.
When you open the False Favourites PDF document you will find you have some reading to do! In all the guide extends to well over 200 pages, but there is something to learn on every page. Jon takes great pain to explain every topic covered by the guide in comprehensive detail. Personally, what I did was to read the whole book from cover to cover, before going back and digesting each section.
Without giving too much away, the process Jon takes the reader through, is first to identify which particular races you are most likely to see a favourite beaten. There are separate sections covering both Flat and Jumps racing.
This first step will help you discard the majority of races on the card, and allow you to focus your attention on a much smaller number of races, saving you a lot of time. You will then learn how to uncover negative aspects to the historic form of the favourite. Being able to spot potential chinks in the armour of the favourite is important.
But a weak favourite can still win races, if the opposition is equally poor, and the next step is to identify race rivals capable of taking on the top horse.
Having explained the methodology, Jon then lists multiple examples with numerous screenshots and explanations. I found this examples section was particularly useful as it was here that a lot of the previous teaching and theory actually ’sank in’.
Jonathan Burgess has clearly put an extraordinary amount of time and effort in to compile this guide, and having read through it a few times now, he obviously wants to help the novice punter develop their form reading and race analysis skills.
As explained at the top of this review, because False Favourites is not a typical system with ‘rigid’ rules for selection, there was little value in proofing selections to Racing Index as is our normal practice. Instead, I spent a month applying the methods in the book, and coming up with my own selections. After the first few days practice I was able to arrive at my best bets in around an hour. So you should bear in mind that the results below are those that I personally judged as good lay bets. Anyone else will probably have come to the same conclusions, in the majority of cases, but not 100% of the time.
If you decide to purchase the guide, I would give my normal advice which is to paper-trade only for at least a couple of months. This will give you time to accustom yourself to the method, and gain confidence in your ability to make good selections. I guarantee that if you adopt the concepts taught by the book, you will find your strike rate getting better over time as your analysis skills improve.
These are the results I achieved through February:
1 Feb No bets
2 Feb No bets
3 Feb Lady Dunhill 15/8F LOST
4 Feb Quince 3/1 LOST
5 Feb Pistol Desbois 7/2 LOST
6 Feb Old Romney 7/2 LOST
7 Feb Tinagoodnight 4/1 LOST
8 Feb No bets
9 Feb One More Round 6/4F LOST
10 Feb No bets
11 Feb No bets
12 Feb Any Currency 13/8F LOST
12 Feb Double Dash 9/4F LOST
12 Feb Pretty Star 4/1 LOST
13 Feb Hohlethelonely 5/2F LOST
14 Feb No bets
15 Feb Parlesotho 5/2F LOST
16 Feb Carrick Boy 11/4F WON
17 Feb Traffic Control 5/1 LOST
18 Feb Threatening To Pay 9/4 LOST
18 Feb Harry Tricker 7/2 LOST
19 Feb No bets
20 Feb Noir Et Vert 2/1F LOST
21 Feb Thundering Star 5/2F LOST
22 Feb No bets
23 Feb Brouhaha 6/4F WON
24 Feb Majorca 3/1F LOST
24 Feb The Dreams Still Alive 7/2 LOST
25 Feb No bets
26 Feb No bets
27 Feb Mongorno 9/4F LOST
28 Feb The Package 11/4F LOST
Although positive, you should not take these results as conclusive. Twenty two bets is not a large enough sample from which to draw any concrete conclusions. That said, I certainly found, especially as the month progressed, that I found myself laying favourites with confidence. This was very much down to the fact that I was making the educated final decisions myself, rather than blindly following a ‘rules based’ system.
What I haven’t mentioned so far, are the ‘extras’ you get when you buy False Favourites. As I write this review, customers also get four bonus items – two further betting guides, a free subscription to Jonathan’s newsletter, and a free subscription for one month to The Betting School.
In summary:
If you want a quick and simple system, False Favourites is not what you are looking for. But if you want a comprehensive approach to laying horses for profit, whilst developing your punting skills at the same time, this ticks all the boxes.
Passed!
At the price of just £28 and offered with the fall-back of a Clickbank satisfaction guarantee, I consider the purchase of False Favourites a virtual no-brainer. You could spend twice this amount on another betting system and learn nothing about reading form and making informed decisions about your selections. Included within the low-price are two bonus eBooks, regular advice from a Betfair Trainer, and a taster of one of the best punters clubs around. Doesn’t need much selling this one!
Visit the False Favourites web site [....]
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