You’ll like this… not a lot… but you’ll like it. It’s my usual end-of-the-week post, and today I’m going to try to conjure up a winner for the weekend, see if my trends analysis can’t pull a rabbit out of the hat, and finish off with an appropriate retro track. Can you see what I’m doing here?
The Victor Chandler Chase tomorrow at Ascot features the Tingle Creek winner Twist Magic, and it’s the race that will likely embarrass me this week. It’s a Grade 1 steeplechase for the speedy jumpers at 2 miles and a furlong, but the ground is currently described as ’soft’ so a degree of stamina will come into play. These are the leading contenders, and my comments about each.
Twist Magic is the warm favourite, trained and ridden by the fantastic duo, Paul Nicholls and Ruby Walsh. It’s not difficult to see why he is top of the market. He won the Tingle Creek at a similar, right-handed track with an uphill finish, on soft ground, on his last outing 49 days ago. Not much to add really, save to say he is the one to beat. But does that mean he is the one to bet at just 11/8?
Champion jockey Tony McCoy is aboard Petit Robin from the Nicky Henderson yard. He won the Desert Orchid Chase at the Kempton Christmas meeting, so it can be seen he has the ability to win at this level. The question mark is whether he will get the better of Twist Magic in the testing ground, as he is largely unproven on soft going. All his runs since early 2007 have been on good or good to soft.
David Pipe saddles Well Chief who finished behind Petit Robin last time out. It was his third race of the season, so you could fairly expect him to have been to full fitness by then, and I don’t think there is more to come from the horse. So I would be surprised to see him reverse the form with Petit Robin.
The next horse to consider is Cornas from the Nick Williams stable. He has form on soft ground, having won at Exeter last time out. Of note however, was his second last race at Ascot where he finished runner-up to Fix The Rib. Although a lower class race than today, it was a strong race, in my opinion.
The last horse I’m considering is Fix The Rib from the Gary Moore yard. He was in the Desert Orchid Chase also, but took a fall. He has shown good form during 2009 and I think his winning run at Ascot in November may be underestimated by punters.
I’m praying no-one drops out between now and the time the tapes go up, and we still see eight runners start. This is because although I think Twist Magic is the one to beat, Fix The Rib offers better value with an each way bet, or a bet to place on the exchanges.
My selection: Ascot 2:40 Fix The Rib each-way forecast 14/1
Profitable trends
Here’s a couple of horses from my ‘niche betting’ file, running tomorrow at Lingfield. Research into the most obscure niches can sometimes reveal profitable trends that 99% of punters thumbing through the Racing Post will be completely unaware of.
Lingfield 1:40 Tatawor – trainer has a 54.6% strike rate in 3yo sellers on the all-weather, and has a ROI of 61.6%
Lingfield 3:20 Rock A Doodle Doo – Jarvis horses returning to all-weather tracks after less than 10 days since their last run, score 31.9% of the time, and return a tasty profit margin of 121.5% when not wearing headgear
Chapeau!
Of note this week, I thought, was the appointment of William Buick as stable jockey to John Gosden. William is just 21 years of age, and only rode his first winner three years ago. Since then was champion apprentice in 2008. He leaves the yard of Andrew Balding who had this to say about him “He’s come a long way in a short time and you don’t do that unless you’ve got a lot of natural talent, which he has” Buick is spending the winter in the United Arab Emirates, and replaces Jimmy Fortune as Gosden’s first choice jockey. Congratulations William!
I’m playing out with my retro track of the week. I hasten to add it’s a couple of years before my time, from the age of platform shoes, sparkly costumes, and (apparently) cricket pads! Nonetheless, enjoy…. Wizzard!
Loading ...