We can look forward to a fine Saturday afternoon of racing tomorrow, with the promise of more to come next week at Glorious Goodwood.

Of course, the feature race of the weekend is the King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Ascot. It’s a middle-distance Group 1 event run over a mile and a half, and we currently have seven runners scheduled to go to post. Included among these is this year’s Derby winner Workforce, who is trading around the even money mark at the moment.

A ‘good thing’ you might think. Maybe. Eight of the last fourteen winners of this race were sent off as favourite, and the last six winners have all been the punters’ choice.

But the Stoute horse also falls down on a couple of trends as well. The Irish-bred horses have dominated this race in recent years, and you have to go back to Pentire in 1996 to find the most recent winner not to have hailed from across the Irish Sea.

The race has been won typically by versatile horses, with at least four wins under their saddle already, and wins over a variety of at least three different distances. Workforce is a relative novice by comparison. It’s perhaps a bit irreverent to remind everyone that Workforce has only won one decent race, when that race happens to be The Derby.

Nonetheless, there are two horses running tomorrow that tick more trends boxes than the favourite, namely Harbinger and Cape Blanco.

You could choose to lay bets against Workforce for an equal risk/reward ratio at even money. However, for me, much more appealing is the potential pay-off of backing Cape Blanco at around 6/1

So that will be my bet of the weekend, Cape Blanco for the King George.

I’m off to get stuck into more trends analysis ahead of Goodwood which kicks off next Tuesday. Enjoy your weekend, and for those fellow parents amongst you, I have selected a track which may well strike fear into your very hearts, as you look forward to the next six weeks….

It’s Alice Cooper – School’s Out For Summer!

Since my last weekly round up England have crashed out of the World Cup and we’re all feeling a bit down-in-the-dumps. Never mind, we can get behind Andy Murray in the tennis now, at least until Friday afternoon! For me personally, I’m looking forward to three weeks of watching brightly-coloured lycra-clad maniacs pedalling up the sides of mountains around the Gallic countryside as Le Tour De France gets underway on Saturday in Rotterdam. God speed with Bradley Wiggins and everyone in the Sky Team crew.

Hey Paul, I hear you shout, this is a horse racing blog?

You’re right, and today I’m going to tell you why I’m backing Twice Over for the Coral-Eclipse at Sandown on Saturday; I’ve got some good news for you if you missed out on joining my new service Horse Racing Trends at the beginning of June; I’m highlighting three trainers whose horses should command some respect when sent to Sandown;  I want to remind everyone how they can take a crisp fifty pound note out of my grubby hands; and then I’m rounding off with another typically topical retro track from the 80’s.

~o0o~

The big race of the week end is the Coral-Eclipse at Sandown on Saturday. It’s a Group One race over one mile and a quarter, for horses aged 3 years and upwards. Looking back over recent years this race has been won by superstars such as Sea The Stars (last year), Falbrav, Halling, Pilsudski, and Daylami. The Eclipse exhibits a number of strong trends, and the favourite Twice Over hits most of these square on the head. The horse’s background leading into the race matches very closely the typical profile of previous winners.

He’s the right age, with the right breeding, he’s had two races already this season and one within the last month in the Prince Of Wales Stakes (13 of the last 14 winners had their last race at either Royal Ascot or the Derby), and he’s managed a top two position at least twice in his last four races. If I were compiling the odds for this race I would have him around the 6/4 mark and he’s currently available at 2/1 so I think it’s a good bet.

The only stain on Twice Over’s otherwiser pristine trends copy book is that he has been around the block a few times. As a five year old this is perhaps to be expected. But history shows us that all but two of the last fourteen winners had raced between five and sixteen times, and Twice Over has completed 18 races. These extra couple of races don’t concern me enough to put me off backing him.

~o0o~

You may or may not know that I launched my brand new racing service Horse Racing Trends just before Derby week end at the beginning of June. The launch was a huge success, and all 300 spaces sold out within 4days. In fact, when I actually took down the ’order’ page I had 307 new members.

Much to my personal relief (I hate to let people down) the first month went particularly well. In the very first race covered, the Diomed Stakes, I highlighted the winner Bushman at 11/1 and we were off to a flying start! Royal Ascot was something more of a struggle, and those members following my personal selections will have lost half a dozen points over the five days. But my HRT Race Ratings did far better, and pointed members to the winner of the Royal Hunt Cup Invisible Man at 28/1

The month finished in particularly pleasing fashion when Premio Loco won the Criterion Stakes last weekend at a tasty 25/1 and those members having the faith to follow my recommendations ended up 23 points in profit to SP.

Why am I telling you this? Well, on Monday I am going to be opening the doors to a very limited number of new members. The fact is that some people decided to cancel their membership within one month, as is their absolute right. Despite being profitable, people will have their own reasons why a service still may not be for them. In all, twenty seven people dropped out. Put in perspective, that’s just under 9% Importantly, there are 280 happy members as we move into the month of July.

On Monday I am going to allow another 20 spaces to be filled, and then that will be it for the foreseeable future. I will maybe take stock again as we move into the Jumps season, but this will definately be the last opportunity for this Flat season.

So if you missed out on the original launch, and you want to join, then make sure you check back here at the blog on Monday, when I will post a link to the Order Page again.

~o0o~

Trainers to follow: there are three trainers I think worthy of close attention at Sandown. In the last five seasons Jeremy Noseda has enjoyed a 37% strike rate at the course, and a 43% level stakes profit. So for every £1 you staked on one of Noseda’s horses you would have got your money back plus a 43pence profit. William Haggas has achieved a 27% level stakes profit for punters at the course over the last five seasons. Richard Hannon is most successful at Sandown between April and July in races run over 7f to 1m1f and at class 4 level and above. Current entries:

3rd July Sandown 2:00 Group Therapy (J Noseda)

3rd July Sandown 2:00 Triple Aspect (W J Haggas)

3rd July Sandown 2:35 Oratory (R Hannon)

3rd July Sandown 4:50 Duplicity (R Hannon)

~o0o~

On Monday I announced a Readers’ Competition and the chance to win fifty pounds. I’m looking for readers to send in details of their favourite betting systems, or at least those they don’t mind sharing with everyone else. I’m going to choose three systems from those you submit, to go head-to-head over the course of a month. The betting system that scores the most profit, or at least loses the least money, will be the winner, and the owner will receive the £50 from yours truly.

I’m doing this in response to the survey which suggests you want to see more free betting systems here on the blog.

Read Monday’s post for full details

If the response is good enough, then this might be a regular event here on the blog, and we can share with each other a bundle of interesting systems, some of which will (hopefully) provide some decent returns.

~o0o~

How could I finish today’s post with anything else but ‘Total Eclipse Of The Heart’ by gravelly-voiced 80’s power-ballad queen Bonnie Tyler. Enjoy!

As we approach the weekend I’ve got three horses to mention for the Northumberland Plate on Saturday, a special word for one of the heros of our sport, and a topical tune (or should that be ‘toon’?) to round things off.

Lets start with the biggest race of the week end, the Northumberland Plate at Newcastle. It’s a handicap race for thoroughbreds aged three years old upwards, and run over the staying distance of two miles. This is one of the highlights of the flat racing year in the north of England and is the feature race of a three-day festival that takes place at Newcastle Racecourse, usually on the last Thursday/Friday/Saturday in June.

The Northumberland Plate is popularly known in the north-east as the “Pitmen’s Derby” as in its early years it was the one opportunity for the local mining families to enjoy a day at the races. Today the geordie lasses treat it as a north-east’s version of Royal Ascot, but with a [shall we say] slightly more “relaxed and informal atmosphere” encouraged in no small manner by the sponsors since 2003 John Smith’s and their products.

Twenty two horses will be going to post this year, which makes this another one of those big-field handicap puzzles, much like the Wokingham, the Royal Hunt Cup, and the Stewards Cup. So who do I think could make it into the frame, and even stick his head in front at the post?

The first horse I think fits the bill is Stansill from the Alan Swinbank yard. He’s won already this season and his last outing was at Haydock when he showed he can stay the trip. In mid-May he finished just over four lengths down in a Listed race at Hamilton. He should go off around the 12/1 mark and is likely to be one of the top half dozen in the betting.

I’m drawn to a couple more runners at more interesting prices too. First, from the Brian Meehan stable and currently available at 25/1 is Aaim To Prosper. He ran in the Ascot Stakes just over a week ago, finishing five lengths down on the winner after twenty furlongs, and that race has produced four of the last fourteen winners of the Northumberland Plate. He’s won over today’s trip so I think he has the tools to do the job.

The third horse I’m going to throw into the mix is Royal Diamond saddled by Michael Dods. He hasn’t hit form so far this year, but he won a class 2 handicap last September at Ffos Las beating Chiberta King who is one of the fancies for this race. At 33’s I think he offers some value against the field.

~o0o~

Chapeau!

A little belatedly (but I have been busy) I wanted to say “chapeau Sir” to Tony McCoy who was awarded the OBE in the Queen’s Birthday Honours List. Sadly AP may not ever get the ultimate recognition from sports fans with his name on the Sports Personality Of The Year trophy, despite being the Champion jockey for fourteen consecutive years, but I was pleased to see him get a pat on the back from one of horse racing’s most high profile fans.

~o0o~

I’m finishing off this week with another topical track. England face Germany in the World Cup (again, and please, PLEASE, no penalties!) this Sunday afternoon. So, after combining the Geordie theme of the Northumberland Plate with football, I arrived at Gazza’s horrendous version of “Fog On The Tyne”. C’mon England!

I’m playing Santa today, fellow TIPs, just as we enjoy two scorching days of sunshine!

I have got twenty four of what I call ‘micro-niche betting systems’ and I want to give them all to you today, by way of a thank you for continuing to read my frequent ramblings.

It was one of these superb little systems that gave me Lucky Breeze up at Yarmouth just a couple of weeks ago, and that day I enjoyed a winner at 66/1 and over three hundred quid to go in my Boys’ Tour De Somwhere cycling fund for a fiver stake. Happy day that!

I have posted a short video, and you will need to re-submit your name and email address I’m afraid, so my automated system knows where to send your gift. Sorry about that.

Click here to get your FREE collection of betting systems

Individually each system is fairly selective, but when you put them all together you should get plenty of action, and hopefully a few big priced winners like Lucky Breeze…. just please don’t expect them every week :o)

Enjoy!

.

This is one of the most important lessons I have EVER taught!

If you want to discover the one change you MUST make if you want 2010 to be the biggest success possible, then watch this video right now. Its a long video at 49 minutes long, so grab a brew, sit down, and turn the speakers up.
 
(….allow the video a few moments to load, then click the Play button. And make sure you watch the video the whole way through to discover how I turned one of the WORST days in my life into a day that changed my life forever)

This is the most brutally honest video I have ever made, and I also consider it the most valuable too.

Watch it. Absorb the message. Then let me know what you think in the comments below, OK?

CLICK HERE to subscribe to my FREE newsletter [...]

My weekly wrap this week, Dear Reader, although a little briefer than I had planned, still manages to give a tip for Lingfield tomorrow, and also recognises two people who have achieved great things this past seven days.

This end of week post has been curtailed by precipitation of the flakey kind! Yes, the South East of England was hit by heavy snow last night, Ascot was called off this morning, and tomorrow’s meeting which included the Long Walk hurdle has also been abandoned. So I thought it a little premature to get stuck into my planned analysis of the race.

The good news is that the race has not been lost altogether, and it has been re-scheduled to be run as part of the card at Newbury on Tuesday December 29th. I will make an appropriate post the Monday evening beforehand.

Fear not, because I do have what I think could be a value bet at the meet at Lingfield tomorrow. Unless the weather takes a considerable turn for the worse, and arctic blizzards descend upon the South Downs, the all-weather meet will still press ahead. The race at 2:30 is a Class 1 Listed race over 1m 2f. The short priced favourite will be Tranquil Tiger, but I would seek to take him on with Saphira’s Fire who should be around the 7/2 mark.

Chapeau!

I have a couple of people to salute this week. First of all, on Wednesday aboard Fighting Chance at Newbury, Richard Johnson became only the second jockey in history to reach 2,000 winners. Johnson, still only 32, rode his first winner at Exeter back in 1994 as a 17 year old. He has enjoyed success at the Cheltenham Festival on 13 occasions, and but for a certain other jockey he would have been champion rider 11 times!

My second tribute this week goes to my 7 year old son Daniel, who attained his first karate belt last Sunday. At the end of a long day’s training, and then a nerve-wracking grading in front of a panel of judges, he performed the ‘kata’ he has been practicing for months, to get his 9th Kyu and the right to wear an orange belt. Well done Daniel!

I’ve put a video below which shows the Kihon Kata that Daniel had to perform.

I hope everyone is ready for Christmas? I’m nearly there, just a few last minute presents to get. What are you hoping to find Santa has left you under the tree next Friday morning?

Time to wrap us this week, and look at the big races coming our way at the week end. In this post I want to mark the passing of a man who has had an effect on how I live my life, say farewell to a great jockey, and give you my thoughts on tomorrow’s Boylesports Gold Cup at Cheltenham.

Most of you will not have heard of Jim Rohn. He was an inspirational speaker, an author, a business counsellor, and a pioneer in what we now know as ‘personal development’. I have twice seen him speak at seminars, and I’ve listened to many of his recordings. When I heard he had passed away last week end, it was like hearing that one of your school teachers had died. It’s also something of a pity that you recognise the impact some people have had on your life so far, only when they are gone. So I just wanted to take a little time to pay tribute to Jim Rohn.

You can watch this short video if you want to, otherwise scroll on down to the next section….

We also said goodbye to Mick Kinane this week. Not in such a permanent way, but we shall not be seeing him ride professionally again. Mick’s profile has never been higher than of late when steering the awesome Sea The Stars to any number of stunning victories in major races. Now the 50 year old follows the colt into retirement.

During a glittering career Kinane has triumphed in four 2,000 Guineas, three Derbys, two Oaks, a St Leger,  five King Georges and six St James’s Palace Stakes – more than any other rider. He won 14 Irish Classics as well as a record seven Irish Champion Stakes. Add to that three Prix de l’Arc de Triomphes, a Melbourne Cup, a Belmont Stakes, and three victories at the Breeders’ Cup. Not too shabby says this blogger!

 OK, the big race over the week end is tomorrow at Cheltenham. The Boylesport Gold Cup is a Class 1 handicap chase run over 2m 5f . Nineteen runners are declared to line up, so let’s have a look at the leading contenders.

Poquelin is one of three horses saddled by Paul Nicholls and it would take a brave man to bet against another winning Saturday for the trainer, following the Betfair Chase, the Hennessy, and the Tingle Creek on successfive weekends. He finished second here four weeks ago to Tranquil Sea in the Paddy Power Gold Cup, when he proved he can handle soft ground. He has also only been penalised 1lb by the handicapper for that run.

Chapoturgeon is also trained by Nicholls, and was a faller in the Paddy Power. He has fallen three times in his last seven starts, so there has to be some concern for me over the reliability of his jumping.

Barry Geraghty partners Atouchbetweenacara for young trainer Tim Vaughan. He’s been raised 19lbs for a course and distance win here back in April, but I think he is still on the up, and Tim Vaughan has been quite bullish about his chances. This race could well be within his compass, and a stepping stone to the Rynair Chase at the Festival.

I’ve always liked Tamarinbleu and he won this two years ago. He made a good seasonal reappearance in the Charlie Hall at the end of October. He would be a solid each way bet, but the question is whether he will be called the winner outright tomorrow afternoon.

Nigel Twiston Davies has two horses in the race, but his best chance lies with Razor Royale. Paddy Brennan rides him. He won last time out, here at Cheltenham, which is always a positive. But that was in a lower grade chase, and he’s been put up 11lbs for that.

I’m going to go for Tamarinbleu. I think a price in double figures is good value for a previous winner, and a horse who has already come out and demonstrated the form to win at this level already this season.

My choice: Tamarinbleu each way at 10/1 or bigger

I hope everybody has a (reasonably) non-hectic weekend. I know I still have plenty of “tasks” to accomplish, all Christmas related. I managed to break the back of my xmas shopping yesterday in Milton Keynes shopping centre, but I’ve still got my parents to sort out (with presents I mean!), a tree to source, and decorations to put up.

Are you ready for Christmas yet? Let me know what is still on your list of things to do by leaving a comment.

This is a bit off topic, but I’m a keen cyclist and I had this YouTube video sent to me earlier. Even if you don’t choose to venture out on two wheels with a saddle that seems far from ergonomic, I think you’ll still find it amusing and an eye-opener. Gets the message across. I won’t say any more, just watch…. then please let me know what you think by leaving a comment.

Jockey Tom Scudamore was to be seen at his very best when partnering Shaking Hands to victory in a handicap chase at Uttoxeter on Saturday. However, punters with money on the 14/1 winner were thinking about tearing up their betting slips when the five-year-old all but fell four fences out, forcing Scudamore to make a superb recovery to remain in the saddle.

However, victory was snatched from the jaws of defeat when leader Pelo Du Bief fell two fences later. Scudamore galvanised his mount back into the lead, and bravely held off the challenge of Brimham Boy on the run-in to come home in front.

Despite a crashing fall, Pelo Du Bief was quickly up on his feet, although his jockey Joseph Cornwall suffered a broken wrist.

This video encapsulates all the thrills and spills of our Sport Of Kings. Bear in mind that this was Tom’s fifth ride of the day, and he had already suffered one heavy fall, and had been unseated by another horse. I bet he was glad to hit the showers at the end of such an eventful day at the races?

The video is shown on the At The Races web site, and if you have not registered there already, you will have to in order to play the video. It does include giving your postal address and your phone number, which I appreciate not all of you will be happy about. But you can always tick the ‘no marketing’ box, and At The Races is a site packed with lots of good stuff so I think it’s worth it.

Watch the video here [....]