Have you ever had one of those moments in your life where everything changed?

You might not have known it at the time – but the moment was defining, it changed the course of some area of your life in a way that turned things upside down.

I had one of those course changing moments early in what you might want to call my betting “career”. It was a moment that eventually resulted in my betting moving from being a hobby that was actually costing me a fair amount of money, to generating a consistent secondary income.

It was a moment that at the time didn’t feel life changing – but it was.

The funny thing about this moment is that it wasn’t a discovery of some secret betting system, it wasn’t the day I started following a new tipster… in fact it was a moment that didn’t immediately lead to any particular change in how I betted – because it was largely something that happened in my mind – a paradigm shifting moment.

It all started with nine words from my wife Sarah.

“You’ve got twelve months to make money from betting.”

She then told me that if I didn’t start seeing profits I’d have to stop betting altogether. The first of our three boys was only a few months old at the time, and I guess it was Sarah’s way of reminding me I now had important responsibilities, and we couldn’t afford to be pouring money away on the horses.

Up until this point I’d been talking about how betting could one day provide us with a full time income. I’d been showing her the growth of the returns from my bets so far, and projecting forward to what they might be in the future if things kept going.

I’d been on about it for months and things were going OK – the graphs I kept showing her were trending up, which actually only meant I was “losing less” - but I could see the possibility of one day being a full time punter.

But I’d been talking a lot…. dreaming a lot…. creating a lot of pretty graphs…. and not really DOING a lot.

I didn’t really see it (I was too close and too caught up in my dreams) but Sarah knew it and so she set me an ultimatum – a deadline that changed my thinking and more importantly led to me changing the way I went about my betting.

In the moments after Sarah’s ultimatum I had a realization that although I dreamed that one day my betting would become a business, up to that point I’d been treating my betting like a hobby.

I knew that if I were to succeed in seeing my betting accounts move from deep in the red, to showing a profit in the next twelve months, then that attitude would have to change. I needed to start looking at my betting as a business NOW – even though right now it was just an expensive hobby.

That moment changed everything.

That was the day that I….

….started putting serious time aside for analysis and research. I was and still am a big fan of speed ratings, but I would leave all my number-crunching to Sunday evening, and it would take three or four hours. Often I just couldn’t be bothered to do the analysis, and as a result my figures would become out of date and unreliable. Now I spend thirty minutes to an hour every day during the week, and I can easily keep on top of things.

….became more focused upon my core tasks of monitoring trends. Trends analysis is my passion (I know, I’m a geek, but I love playing with figures!) But I would sometimes get to hear of someone using another method of form study or statistical research, and waste time wondering if I could apply similar methods myself. Rather than concentrating on what I knew and what was already working for me.

….wasted less time on distractions. For example, I would always watch every race in which I had an interest. Not just races where I was actually having a bet, but also races where there may have been a qualifying selection in a system or method I was evaluating. It was madness! Me watching the race was not going to affect the result, and I worked out I was spending an average of 90 minutes a day watching the TV when I could have been using my time more productively.

….became more strategic in my thinking and set myself goals to work towards.

….began to look for new income streams. I gave up my salaried job and went into business with a friend of mine, selling eBooks on eBay. This provided me with an income whilst freeing up more time for me to focus on betting. My information marketing business on eBay eventually led to me creating SkyBlueKangaroo and developing it into an online business.

….started to look for a business coach who could teach me how to take what I enjoy doing, which is researching profitable betting methods and then writing about them, and turning that into a business from which I can earn a living. As the saying goes….

“If you enjoy what you do, you will never work another day in your life.”

That day began the process for me of taking my vision, and turning into the income streams I am lucky enough to enjoy today. Betting and my online business interests give me great personal satisfaction, whilst also giving me the freedom from a nine-to-five job. And it all started with my wife’s encouraging words (or “nagging” as it is otherwise known!)

While not a lot changed immediately in my betting methods that day – the impact over the last four or five years has been significant. I’ve not looked back and many of the things I changed back then have become patterns and a natural part of my daily work flow.

The #1 reason my betting developed into a profitable business was that I began to treat it as one.

Further reading:

The typical professional gambler is a schizophrenic

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This week, fellow TIP’s, I thought I would compile a list…. everybody likes a ‘list’ don’t they?

Most people reading this blog are looking to make their betting pay. So today I have put together a list of people who have managed to do just that – my Top Ten Professional Gamblers in UK Horse Racing.

If you bet for entertainment but want to break even and enjoy an inexpensive hobby; if your aim is to see a profit at the end of each season, no matter how small; or if you have aspirations of earning a secondary income from betting, then I also recommend you take note of some of the further reading and get hold of some of the books mentioned. Modelling yourself on the habits of successful people is a maxim I hold very strong, and you can learn from the stories of these pro punters.

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Clive Holt

Clive Holt is a legend in punting circles and it was his father who first showed him that money could be made from betting. Holt Snr owned a couple of greyhounds during the 1960s. In the early part of 1975 Clive decided was ready to take up gambling on a full time basis and quit his job working for the Electricity Board. He started out using a fairly random approach which was dictated by his finances, and at first he didn’t keep any proper records of bets he had made.  He soon made the decision to start recording all his bets, and this was the first of two business-like strategies he implemented to help him make a better profit.  The second was to set aside a dedicated betting bank.

His first bet was £67 to £30 on a horse called Western Jewel who won easily, and within a couple of months he had made more money from betting than he was earning in a whole year working for the Electricity Board.  Over the years, although rarely winning more than £1,000 at a time, Holt’s profits from betting afforded him an enviable lifestyle of exotic holiday, luxury cars, and a country house with acres of land.

Clive Holt was the man behind Fineform, and he has written a number of books:

Profitable Winners Always Back Value Winners

Fineform Winners Guide

Be A Successful Punter

Profitable Betting Strategies

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Terry Ramsden

Terry Ramsden made his fortune through investment company Glen International in the 1980’s.  He was already worth millions and, amongst other things, he owned a string of race horses. He was well known for his betting and in 1985 won £2million on just one horse.  The following year he had another collossal win on Motivator in the Coral Golden Hurdle Final. Towards the end of the 80’s Ramsden’s company folded and around the same time he started losing huge sums of money on bets. There are reports he lost £1million on one bet alone.  Eventually he went bust and he fled to America.

Terry Ramsden won but also lost millions of pounds. In the late 1990’s he was jailed for concealing assets during his bankruptcy, including a rumoured £70,000 win on the horses. When he returned to public life a few years later Ramsden failed to enjoy his previous successes and has since been involved in a number of legal disputes over money.

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Alan Potts

Alan Potts was just 14 years old when he started betting on horse racing and made the choice to become a full time professional punter after he was made redundant from his office job in 1991. He has revealed it took him many years to become a consistent winner, and despite making an estimated £50,000 a year from betting in the past, he has also suffered losing runs.  You see, it happens to the very best!

He is an owner, a successful author and a pundit, yet his main source of income still comes from his betting. In 1999 he jointly formed The Golden Anorak Partnership and this is the banner under which his horses now run.

Alan writes articles for the WBX betting exchange, and has published two books:

Against The Crowd

The Inside Track

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Harry Findlay

Akin to Terry Ramsden above, Harry Findlay is another larger-than-life gambler who has not only made a fortune, but also lost a fortune from gambling over the years. He has always had a soft spot for greyhounds and worked with them for some while after leaving school. Also like Ramsden, Findlay suffered a spell in prison, when aged just 20 years old, having been convicted of credit card fraud.

These days bets from his home office which is fully equipped with a several television screens and monitors, often showing a variety of different sporting events. As well as being a professional punter Harry is also an owner.  He jointly owns the 2008 Cheltenham Gold Cup winner Denman, who has more recently won  the Hennessy Gold Cup for the second time.  Big Fella Thanks is another of his co-owned horses, named after his beloved greyhound 1999 Coursing Derby winner Big Fella.

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Dave Nevison

Dave Nevison was a City currency trader before turning professional punter in 1993 having lost his job. He now reortedly earns a six figure income from betting and also from journalism and punditry columns for various newspapers and publications.  Dave has his own horse racing tipping service and has written two books:

A Bloody Good Winner: Life As A Professional Gambler

No Easy Money: A Gambler’s Diary

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JP McManus

Multi millionaire JP McManus is one of the better-known race horse owners, and big time gamblers. Originally from Limerick in Ireland, McManus started betting as a school-boy before working in his family’s plant hire business. He stood at his own betting pitch for a while at Limerick’s greyhound track, and it wasn’t too long before he progressed into owning horses as well as betting and laying.

Today JP owns more horses than any other National Hunt owner. His first ‘sizeable’ win (rumoured to be in the region of £250,000) was at Cheltenham with a horse called Mister Donovan who was sent off second favourite but ended up winning the race. He also famously took over £1 million from the satchel of popular Scottish bookie Freddie Williams in 2006 at Cheltenham. McManus is a high roller in the world of gambling, but a fair percentage of his wealth is said to come from international financing and money dealing, which he manages from his base in Geneva. Unfortunately in 2008 McManus was diagnosed with cancer, although he is now said to be doing well.

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Barney Curley

Barney Curley is both a professional gambler and a trainer and hails from Northern Ireland. He has a reputation for being one of racing’s most colourful characters. Despite watching his father run up massive gambling debts he still decided to take up the same “career” himself. In 1975 he was the brains behind one of the biggest betting coups of all time, as a result of which he netted over £300,000 from a horse called Yellow Sam.  He has also appeared in court charged with promoting an illegal lottery after raffling his mansion for £1.5 million.

Giving a Little Back (Autobiography)

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Patrick Veitch

Patrick Veitch has to be acknowledged as one of Britain’s most successful gamblers, and he has won over £10 million from betting. Something of a mathematical genius he was just 15 years of age when he got a place at Cambridge. Instead of completing his degree he turned to gambling and started his own tipping service. By his mid 20’s Patrick Veitch was already making a great deal of money.

But then came a turning point in his life.  He was the target of a criminal and forced to live in hiding for many months, putting his career on hold and eventually leaving him broke.  However, the episode only made him stronger, and he became more successful than ever. Soon he was making £1 million a year from his strategic betting methods. Veitch is a strong believer that there are no short-cuts when it comes to betting. The only way to win is by working hard at it to get it right. You will rarely see Patrick at the races.  He uses thirs parties to place his bets and spends most of his time watching and analysing events from his computer.

Enemy Number One (Autobiography)

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Alex Bird

The late Alex Bird made a considerable amount of money from betting after The War and it has been estimated he had an annual gambling turnover of £2 million. His interest in gambling began when he was a child, and he learned a lot from his father who was a bookmaker. However, he recognised there was potentially more money to be made from the punter’s side, and he became arguably Britain’s best known professional punter of all time.

Bird employed several strategies for getting one over on the bookies, but his most famous was probably the success he enjoyed betting on photo finishes, which in those days took about 5 minutes to develop.  This process earned him a fortune over a period of around 20 years and only stopped when technology advanced and there was no longer the delay in photo developing. Alex Bird rarely listened to anyone when it came to betting, and invariably made up his own mind. He stuck rigidly to his rules and systems.  Even now, almost 20 years after his death, there are still systems available that are based on the practices he used.

His biggest bet was on the well known horse Mill Reef in the Gimcrack. The following season Mill Reef won the Derby, again backed by Bird. By this point he had backed seven Derby winners in eight years. One of his last bets was on a horse called Final Shot in 1990 when it was victorious in the Ayr Gold Cup.

Life and Secrets of a Professional Punter

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Phil Bull

Phil Bull made huge sums of money from betting. But not only was he a very successful gambler, he was also a breeder, owner, writer and publisher. It is estimated he made millions during his career. In 1948 he launched the now internationally renowned organisation Timeform. Phil was the original ’shrewdie’. He viewed the season as a whole, and his form study followed the same pattern for every race.

How To Make A Book

Phil Bull: The Biography by Howard Wright

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Further reading:

Ten People You Should Listen To In 2010

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As a betting exchange Betfair offers hundreds of opportunities to trade prices on many different betting markets every day, but traders must be disciplined and be willing to absorb a loss when the market goes against them. Appealing phrases such “locked in profits, green books, guaranteed pay-out whatever the outcome, and free bets”  - it all sounds too good to be true, and we all know what it can mean if it sounds too good…. so in today’s post I’m going to investigate further.

I’m going to start by saying something which may seem to you paradoxical in some ways – but I believe you can become a good scalp trader simply because you cannot really predict which way the price of a horse will go.

It is very ambitious of me to try to explain how to trade in a short article but hopefully I can get the ball rolling for you. If I can get some discussion going on this topic we can see where it leads. I hasten to add at this point that I am by no means an expert, and I do not trade regularly at all. But I have had some reasonable success previously and I now feel comfortable passing on some strategies that have worked for me. Given that honest admission, you can decide whether or not you wish to take any notice of me, and I will not be offended if you decide against.

If everyone shows me there’s more than a passing interest in trading, I may add some more articles and videos of strategies over the next few weeks.  But for today, I’ll discuss a type of trade known as ’scalping’.

Scalping as a method is generally exercised on markets where the price is relatively stable (so it tends to be about the favourite, especially when it comes to horse racing) and the trader is seeking to take advantage of a price move of just one or two ticks. At the other end of the spectrum, “swing trading”, which I may discuss in the future, attempts to profit from a large price move in a more volatile market.

So here is a brief explanation of how trading works for the complete novice:

In essence, trading is not dissimilar from buying and selling shares and commodities on the Stock Market. You are looking to back something (sell) at a high price and lay it (buy) at a low price (or lay at a low price first then back it at a high price), thus locking in an automatic profit or a free bet.

So for example, let’s say you back a horse (Imperial Commander) at 4.40 with £100 and the price shortens to 4.00 at which point you lay, again with £100.

Should the horse win, you would earn £340 from your back bet, but you pay out £300 for the lay. In other words, you profit £40 if the horse wins and nothing if it loses. It has become a risk free bet.

The majority of traders however, will rarely settle for the ‘free bet’ option and they will ‘green up’ the book instead. After the price move, the trader will lay with £110 instead of £100

In this scenario the trader will now win £10 no matter which horse wins – this is known as a green book because the profit/loss figure shown on your Betfair screen will be a green (profit) amount against every single runner. Not one horse is a loser in this kind of book. A green book is a thing of beauty I’m sure you’ll agree, but it’s not quite so simple. In the event the price moves against you, you have to get out for a loss and endure a red book, which doesn’t look so pretty!

That’s the basics. Of course the difficult bit (and isn’t there always a difficult bit?), is trying to take advantage of these price movements. How then, do we decide when we should be backing, and when we should be laying?

When Betfair was fairly new and I dabbled with trading a few years back, I would check all the graphs and then take a position (based on past movements) hoping the price would move my way. Disaster – I lost a lot of money doing it that way because it was almost entirely guesswork on my part.

You will be pleased to hear, you don’t have to guess the markets to be a good scalp trader. Everyone does it differently, and perhaps some people are experts at price prediction, but for me the ‘trade secret’ (forgive the pun) is to take a position by leaving a back or lay order a little bit away from the current price.

But here’s the essential part: You need to look for a spot where there is very little money waiting already (so you will be at the front of the queue). To give you an example, let’s say we are watching the favourite, and the horse is currently trading at 2.98.

You might spot that there is only £51 in the queue waiting to back the horse at 3.15 so I put in an order at that price for £100.

At this point, it’s just a matter of playing the waiting game. I’m hoping the price rises to 3.10 at which point I get ready to click the pink box and lay. If it doesn’t rise – I can simply cancel the order and no damage is done – that’s one of the advantages of this type of trading.

If it does rise and I see money getting eaten away at 3.10 then I will lay. Then, when the price hits 3.15, my £100 order will start to get taken and this will complete the trade. The beauty is that because I got in early, my order will be right up near the front of the queue (you will remember that there was only £51 ahead of me) so I get matched very quickly.

Of course there is the possibility that the price will move back down as soon as I’ve layed (and never hit 3.15) but if this happens, you have to get out for a loss pretty quickly – I never said this would be easy-peasy, and never make the mistake of letting the bet stand and hope for the best. Take it from me – it’s a pretty efficient way of wasting your money!

The great thing about this kind of trading is that you don’t have to try predict which way the price will go. If for example, the price stayed at 2.98 and never moved upwards, I could simply cancel my back order and move on to the next market with no damage done.

I could probably write all day about this but I wanted this post today to demonstrate you can execute some decent trades with a relatively small bank. People invariably think you have to have thousands in your account to trade properly but this does not have to be the case. You can trade with any amount really – but remember, keep stakes to an absolute minimum when starting out as you will definitely make mistakes and probably blow away a few banks along the way. It takes time and patience to learn how to trade and if you find you struggle to make profit with small amounts, even after a few weeks practice, you sure as heck won’t do it with a large amount.

As I said at the top of this article, I am not an expert, and if you regularly practice this strategy for making profits from horse racing I would love to hear from you. If you could give one single piece of advice to a trading newbie, what would it be? Do you use any particular tools or resources to help you in your trading exploits? If you don’t mind sharing, please list them and leave a comment for the benefit of other readers.

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You may have noticed, in a lot of the articles and posts I have written over the years, that I advocate keeping your own notes and records if you are half-way serious about profiting from betting on horses. If you could see my office you would understand that I practice what I preach. Not only do I keep spreadsheets and databases on my computer, but maintain good old hard copy journals, notebooks and box files, all hand-written in my own scrawling handwriting.

Those notes are not just to remind me of when I made a blunder (I use big bold red letters in marker pen to give myself a mental kick up the backside!), but also to help me to develop my skills as a race analyst, and to snare the occasional value bet. In my individual approach to race analysis and betting I’m continually seeking that bit of information that the crowd doesn’t have, or isn’t immediately obvious and staring them in the face. I have often said, “if you want to beat them, make sure you know something they don’t, or at least have better information on the stuff they do know.”

If you want to beat them, make sure you know something they don’t, or at least make sure you have better information up your sleeve on the stuff they do know.

Just possessing that one piece of knowledge that the average punter doesn’t know, can be the difference between a winning day and a miserable evening spent brooding over your mistakes. So what notes should you keep? Well obviously, you need to spot things, and when you do, write them down. They have to be the kind of things that the race commentators probably will not mention in their post-race comments.

An example of this sort of note taking is a tongue tie. If you note that a horse did not have one in its last race, but today has one fitted, then that is important. If you had made a note that a horse looked distracted or out-of-condition in the paddock last time out, but today looks good in his coat, with ears pricked, then that is important.

Those are the kinds of things you will not find in the form book, but they can point very clearly to how the horse may run today, compared to last time. So these kind of notes are very important. If you are anything like me, you cannot rely on your memory to recall what you had for breakfast this morning, let alone how a horse looked in the parade ring three weeks ago. So that is why I am a prolific note taker. You may think it is a lot of hard work, but then I’ve never said making your betting pay was going to be easy.

Further reading:

How To Cope With Losing Runs

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Have you ever asked yourself why horse racing systems are so popular? I mean seriously, does anyone really sell a system that can genuinely beat the bookmakers? Is it actually possible to spend money and receive a written method for making a profit by betting and if so, why would anyone sell such a valuable piece of information?

Those are all good questions and when it comes to ‘how to make money’ schemes, there is nothing wrong with a healthy bit of skepticism. We have all heard the phrase, “If it sounds too good to be true, then most probably it is, too good to be true!”. My advice is if you want to get ahead by betting on horse races, think twice about spending your money on a get-rich-quick, guaranteed-to-make-a-profit-straight-out-of-the box system. On the other hand, several methods will help you to become better at finding winners.

People generally look to a system for picking horses because on the face of it, figuring out a race can be difficult. Starting from scratch and developing your own system is a time consuming, and perhaps expensive job. But when someone advertises they can point you in the right direction and help you with their proven system that will make it quick and easy, then it does become appealing to buy that system. Many peopled buy ready-made horse racing systems because they have little clue where to start.

If the person marketing the system makes it clear in their sales copy that his or her system will help you to spot more winners, but cannot guarantee it will instantly make you a ton of money, then chances are they may be truthful, and have a good product. The real acid test is in the guarantee that they offer if you find you do not like their product or service.

If they offer a money back guarantee for the horse racing system, then it’s possible they are honest, and genuinely believe in what they are selling. Common sense tells you to avoid over-hyped sales copy with promises of overnight riches and the oppotunity to quit your job, whilst making this opportunity of a lifetime available for less than the price of a pair of jeans!

We buy betting systems often because we are lazy. Read a book about any professional gambler, and you will soon discover they are a breed that is far from lazy.

How much time do you spend each week in the pursuit of betting profits? Do you develop your own systems? Share your experience with the blog and leave some comments below.

Further reading:

The typical professional gambler is a schizophrenic

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As someone who discusses horse racing on a blog, talks about betting systems, and provides a horse racing handicapping service, it will not surprise you to hear that I’m often asked for tips. Most of my friends know what I do for a living, and when we are down the pub, out on a cycle ride, or even if I’m stood at school of an afternoon to pick up the boys and I bump into one of the other school Dads, the topic of conversation will invariably turn to “got any tips for tomorrow?”

Whilst I have never been too comfortable giving hard and fast tips on individual races, I have always been happy to offer some general advice that can produce more winners and reduce the number of avoidable losing bets. I believe sensible strategic advice is something you can charge for, but I’m afraid I don’t have the confidence to ask people for money for my opinion as a professional tipster.

That said, these tips are the top three that I have learned in more than 10 years battling against the bookmakers, and latterly the exchange players. You may well disagree with the meritable order of them, and perhaps you will consider some ‘golden rules’ of your own more important. That of course is your opinion, and as you know, all opinions are most welcome here at SkyBlueKangaroo.com.

These three tips are the most important to me, and I owe each a debt of gratitude for helping me gain just the slightest of edges when playing the horses.

TOP TIP #1 First up, and Tip Number One is actually about life. Trying to earn a living at the races is tough, real tough. Whilst betting on horse racing can be great fun, especially when at the track, and with some sound strategies and the help of a following wind even profitable, it can also be soul destroying and an emotional drain. If you do it month in, month out for a living, it can also be boring at times. In reality, working hard to come out ahead by betting on horses is a million miles from the millionnaire lifestyle portrayed by “those” betting system sellers. Sorry if it isn’t as glamorous as you thought, but that’s the way it is. I still love handicapping horse races and playing them for profit, and I couldn’t go back to a ‘proper job’. And that’s assuming someone would be insane enough to employ me! It’s crucial you love what you do, otherwise you would struggle to succeed long term.

TOP TIP #2 Next, and Tip Number Two is about playing the horses in general. You will NEVER ever beat the races. But you CAN succeed, one race at a time, and one bet at a time. Horse race handicapping and betting on horses is an intellectual challenge, so it’s crucial you choose the races you play carefully, and pay attention to the many factors that can affect the outcome of a race. You would be wise to get into the habit of approaching each race on its individual merits, but learn to keep the big picture in mind as well. Each and every race is important,  but remain emotionally detached and refrain from going on tilt when you lose a bet. If a race doesn’t pan out how you expected, you need to accept this will always happen, and you will never be right every time. The very best professional punters lose many of their bets.

I often motivate myself through a bad patch by thinking about the sport of baseball, in particular, batting averages. More often than not, even the very best major league baseball players fail to hit the ball when they step up to the plate. In fact, a player with a 0.333 average will be considered “good” even though they only hit the ball once every three attempts! Think about it, he fails twice as much as he succeeds, and he is considered “good” at what he does! You will also lose more than you win, but the trade secret is to win enough times, at the right prices, to make a profit, and that brings me to Tip Number Three.

TOP TIP #3 Tip Number Three concerns value betting and paying attention to what horses are paying to win. Have the discipline to shop for value odds on your chosen horse and never be consumed by the form of a horse to the exclusion of all else. No matter how much you might think your selection cannot lose given its figures, horses with outstanding form compared to their rivals still lose races. If your choice is your top rated and has a 50% chance of winning, you must still get better than odds of evens to make money on it. The ability to manage your money and your understanding of the financial side of betting and winning is a critical factor to your success, because if you lose all your money, your skills in race prediction will be academic.

I hope you find some value in each of these tips, but what is your one ‘Golden Rule’ when it comes to betting? Let me know your thoughts and leave a comment below.

Further reading:

How to cope with losing runs

You may have asked yourself before now “If the bookmakers always stack the odds in their favour, what chance does a punter have of ever making a profit?”

Because of the over-round a bookmaker works into his “book”, it is hardly surprising that as many as 95% of punters fail to come out in front when betting the horses over the long term. The powerful High Street bookmakers employ the very best odds compilers who are experts at estimating the true chances of a horse winning a race, setting prices, and locking in a profit margin.

Nevertheless, horse racing can never be 100% statistically quantifiable, in the sense that cards or other forms of casino gambling can be. Games such as roulette and blackjack are governed by simple rules of probability. For example, my chance of winning on number 18 on the roulette wheel is undeniably one-in-thirty seven. Whereas the true chance of Kauto Star winning the Cheltenham Gold Cup is debatable – because it is based upon opinion.

And if I think I know what his chances are, what gives me the right to say my estimate is more accurate than the bookmaker’s?

The answer to this question will come only after time, with experience, and by immersing yourself in the sport and its betting markets. The good news is that bookmakers are human, and like all humans, they make mistakes. Admittedly they do not make them in every race, every day of the week, but nonetheless they do have errors in judgement. The trick of course, as a knowledgeable bettor, is to be able to spot these errors, and pounce upon them.

A good example, although in a different sport, was when William Hill went a crazy 200/1 about Primoz Peterka, a Slovenian ski jumper, to win the opening ski jumping World Cup competition of the 2002/03 season in Finland. This price was offered despite the fact that he had won the qualifying competition the night before, and was clearly in form. Furthermore he had been double world champion in previous seasons. The true odds for him to win were more likely around 10/1 and this is how most of the rival bookmakers had him in their books. This was a glaring example of the price being far too high compared to the actual chance of winning. As an aside, Peterka won, William Hill ceased offering odds for the ski jumping World Cup shortly thereafter, and I’m sure someone would have left the William Hill building with his P45 that day!

Of course, such large mistakes are very rare, and it’s the smaller pricing errors the professional punter will go in search of every day in order to earn his living. But make no mistake, the only way to profit from betting long term is to seek out and take advantage of value bets where the odds are in favour of the bettor.

Punters adopt many different strategies to gain that crucial edge over the market. Some will employ a mathematical approach by using race rating systems which analyse past performance in order to predict future outcomes. Others will spend hours each week delving into form books and internet sites to avail themselves with as much information as they can about a particular race. This may include news from inside the stable or from observers on the training gallops. Others may base their decisions on nothing more than a subjective feel for the upcoming race, relying upon their experience and perhaps a hunch about how the race will unfold. And finally there are those punters who pay others to do the calculating, form study, and thinking for them, by subscribing to tipster services.

There is no right or wrong way to seek a betting edge. At the end of the day, the best one is the one that works for you, and hopefully one that returns a profit. However, a word of caution when following a professional service…. basic economics and common sense should tell you that the more punters there are backing the same horse ‘tipped’ to win, the smaller the opportunity to secure value. Much better to have your own unique angle to selecting horses, and avoid sharing the value that might be available.

What any successful approach has in common with other methods, is a shared goal of finding ‘value’ in the odds and prices, where the actual chance of a horse winning is greater than that estimated by the bookmaker or the market on the betting exchanges. The vast majority of punters are ignorant of the importance of value betting. They generally think that to win at betting you just need to pick more winners. A short-priced winner is better than the horse at 20/1 that loses, right? Well, yes, but as a winning punter the trick is to make your decision before the event, and make the right decision at the right price, enough times to ensure a profit.

A genuine value bettor is typically unconcerned about backing a horse other than the favourite. The favourite is more often than not the horse with the best chance of winning, yet the value in the race is often in backing horses more likely to lose. Backing horses with a price that suggests a 10% chance of winning, ie 9/1 when the true chance is 20% and 4/1 makes sense. They will not always win, but they will win enough times at generous prices to see you collect more money than you stake.

It may seem counter-intuitive to back a horse you do not think will win, but probability will guarantee you a profit nonetheless, if you consistently back horses at prices higher than they should be.

The genuine value bettor does not think in terms of one single race, but rather, “If the same race were run 100 times, which horse would I want to back at the prices offered.?”

Since odds are just a way of expressing probabilities, value betting provides the only way to beat the bookmaker over the long haul. Your average punter can back as many ‘winners’ as he likes, but if he ignores the prices and therefore the risk-reward ratios, then his winnings may not be enough to return a profit. The successful bettor will be prepared for his fair share of losing bets and bad luck stories, but he will alway be encouraged by the value bettors’ motto “Find the value, and the winners will take care of themselves.”

The British weather is a constant inspiration for conversation, fellow TIPs, but of late the topic of the weather has been elevated to headline news status. Britain has been shivering since the week before Christmas, and the last of the snow finally disappeared from British racecourses only little more than a week ago. We’ve been struggling to get to work because of freezing weather conditions, and schools have been forced to close. For more than two weeks there was no racing on the turf because snow lay all around. On more than one occasion even all-weather meetings were cancelled, because the obligatory ambulances could not access the course.

With all the talk of shivering temperatures, it is hardly surprising that many people, including us punters, have been asking “whatever happened to global warming?”

I was watching a program on the Discovery Channel the other day which went some way to answering that question. And it also got me thinking how we can draw several parallels between the weather and betting on horse racing.

The chap on the telly was explaining how we should not be confusing the weather with the climate. He said it was was not surprising the cold period has raised questions over climate change – but the snowy weather should not be used as evidence against it.

”It’s no surprise that people look out of their window at the snow and find it hard to rationalise what’s going on with the longer term trend.”

But he said it was wrong to focus on single events – whether they were cold snaps or heat waves – which were the product of natural variability. Instead they should look at the underlying, longer term trends for the climate which were more robust evidence of the changes which are happening.

The last decade was the warmest on record, with the last three each warmer than the previous 10 years.

The Met Office has reported that December and January’s cold weather was within the bounds of natural variability within a global trend of rising temperatures – in which 2009 is set to be the fifth warmest year on record. Despite temperatures in December which were half the average for that month in the UK, the country experienced another warm year which was 0.6C above the long term average.

”If you look at the temperature graph for the UK or the world, it is a series of peaks and troughs and there’s a lot of inter-annual variability within the climbing trend.”

So how does this relate to betting on horse racing?

Weather systems consist of many variables to produce a result. Air temperature, atmospheric pressure, prevailing winds and many other influences combine to dictate whether it rains over a particular area, or sends people running for the sun-cream. On the face of it, weather systems may appear to be completely random and chaotic events. On the face of it, a horse race may appear to be the same. A group of horses, each with four legs, sets off on a race.

The outcome of a horse race is also influenced by a number of variables – the fitness of each horse, the going, the distance, the jockey, the pattern of the race, luck in running, and so on. That is the challenge of racing we all relish. But we relish that challenge because ultimately we think the puzzle can be solved. And similarly, for many years meteorologists have engaged in the pursuit of predicting the weather.

What lesson can we learn from observing the weather?

The extraordinary cold weather we have experienced of late is simply a departure from the norm, but within the bounds of variability. Just because arctic conditions have descended upon us for a few weeks, does mean Britain now has an arctic climate. It is important we step back and observe the bigger picture, setting the recent cold snap in context with the rise in average temperatures over the last thirty years.

We should should exercise the same objectivity when we are betting. A losing day, week, or even month should not necessarily be cause to set alarm bells ringing. Equally, trialling a system for a week and seeing a profit should not be immediately followed by investing headlong with full stakes.

Knee-jerk reactions to short-term results will often lead to poor decision-making.

On this site we tend to trial a system for a month, or thirty “betting days” if the system is more selective. If the system returns a profit, we will generally recommend it worthy of further evaluation, but only further evaluation. Personally, I would not be remotely tempted to start investing properly in any system until I was happy with the returns from at least 250 separate bets.

If you like, data from 250 bets will give you an indication of the climate of the system in question. Any amount of data much less than this will simply tell you what the weather is doing at a particular period in time.

The lesson is to test a betting system, method, or strategy for a significant period of time before coming to any conclusions.

It is my opinion, Dear Reader, that if ever the successful pro-punter found himself reclined on the couch in the consulting room of his local psychiatrist, he would invariably be classed a clinical schizophrenic. Brain surgeon, and psychopath axe-murderer!

The mild-mannered brain surgeon will spend hours painstakingly dissecting the form book with his scalpel. His approach is both considered and meticulous, as he researches every minute detail of form data, trend analysis, and probability. He needs to maintain high levels of concentration and remain alert to each and every signal. When the brain surgeon has finished his precise operation, the door is kicked open and in steps the mad axeman…. here’s Johnny!

Johnny will possess an unwavering willingness to trade aggressively; he will show no emotion even when a relative fortune is at stake on one horse. With eyes wide and staring, he is a loner, hell-bent on opposing the status quo, laughing in the face of public opinion. “Bet the favourite? Are you mad? The outsider is the only horse who can win this race!!”

“Bet the favourite? Are you mad? The outsider is the only horse who can win this race!!”

Mental…. Certifiably insane… But profitable.

At the end of the day, and stepping carefully over the carnage left by the axe man, the brain surgeon takes over again, cool, calm, and collected. He assesses the results, learns what he can, and takes out his scalpel once again before planning his bets for the following day.

I’ve said it before - hard work, study, and dedication will get you a long way, but often the difference between success and failure can be your state of mind.

What do you find is the biggest mental challenge you face when deciding which bets to place on any particular day?

Further reading:

Resolutions for 2010 to help make your betting more profitable

Betting with a gun to your head

The first week of the year has now come and gone and if you have a good old fashioned week-to-view paper diary, you will have turned the page and become well and truly immersed in 2010. Although dogged by the weather and severely restricted betting opportunities, I still enjoyed quite a good week when it came to handicapping horse races. But just because that was a good week, it will not necessarily follow that this week or the next will also be profitable.

The dull side to the coin that is ’making money betting on horse races’, is that you are only as good as your last bet. It’s very easy to say we must look at the big picture and not let any one losing bet upset us, but it remains a constant challenge to stay focused and to keep making good bets.

As a professional horseplayer you can never relax nor allow yourself to get sloppy. Handicapping horse races has been likened to chess and other intellectual sports, but whilst it may be a mind-game of sorts, it also reminds me of running the marathon. Mental fortitude and discipline is a big part of distance running because as the athlete approaches the end of the race, he/she feels considerable physical pain. It requires exceptional mental and emotional strength to push through the pain barrier and on to the finish line, especially when you know that pain is coming.

Betting on horse racing and riding the roller coaster of gambling can be very similar. During the coming months of 2010 I know I will come out second best in more than a few photo finishes. I will dispair as my horse gets disqualified for interference in the home straight. There will be the occasional lengthy losing streak as well. I know this from experience. I know this because it happened in 2009. All these traumatic events, in addition to the mental fatigue of rating race after race and making decisions about each one, will push me to my limits.

Does this sound familiar to you too? Then I’ve made a few suggestions for 2010 to try and make it a bumper year for any aspiring pro-punter who makes the effort to not only undertake these resolutions but also to stick with them.

1. Despite losing a competitive race because my jockey let me down through incompetence, I will not hold a grudge nor let it upset me to the point where I no longer am able to make clear decisions.

2. I will maintain accurate records of each and every bet, and manage my betting bankroll like a professional so that I am more likely to make a profit.

3. I am not paranoid! Though it may appear the whole world is out to get me, I will not take any losing bets personally. Nor will I take any bad racing luck as a sign that life is against me. I am aware that both time and chance, as the saying goes, happens to everyone sooner or later.

4. I will learn to quit when I have achieved my goals, not bet for fun, and to set both win and loss limits.

5. I will remind myself often that betting on horse racing is just one constituent part of my life, and that there are people and other situations in my world that also deserve my time and undivided attention also.

You can most probably think of some other resolutions to make life more enjoyable (and far less stressful) as well as improving your betting skills. Enjoy all your days at the races in 2010.

Further reading:

How do you make money from betting? Just follow Jesus

How to cope with losing runs