I started following Joe Chadwick recently when I discovered he was returned the ‘tipster of the month’ back in December at the Tipster Site.

If you haven’t yet stumbled across the Tipster Site, I guess the best way to describe it is as a sort of ‘tipster portal’ – they keep tabs on a number of horse racing tipsters and services and display their performance in league tables. It seems to be quite similar to the Tipping League or the Racing Post naps table.

As is my want when conducting an initial review, you might be shocked to learn that at first I am not necessarily looking for a profit to be returned. In fact, I am far more interested in the typical prices about the selections, to see if their is a likelihood of long term value.

I’m also keen to see the percentage of horses showing improvement. This tells me the system or tipster is highlighting genuine horses that are on the upgrade, and performing to expectations.

Joe Chadwick gives a daily nap on the Tipster Site, and I now have the results over the past thirty days or so. These are the figures to note….

• Number of bets: 30 bets
• Winners: 6 winning bets (20% strike rate)
• Number finishing in a place: 13 (43%)
• Number finishing in the first third of the field: 13 (43%)
• Number of horses showing an improved performance: 17 (56%)
• Profit/Loss: 7 points, £140 to £20 stakes
• Return on Investment: 123%
• Price range: 4/6 to 33/1
• Number of bets above 3/1 at SP: 24 (80%)

Notable near misses…. Ascendant 2nd at 25/1, Knockara Beau 4th at 33/1

Summary…. Some will baulk at the relatively low 20% strike rate, but when you consider 80% of the selections were sent off above 3/1 and at prices up to 33/1 I guess we shouldn’t find this surprising. The selections made a profit and gave a return on investment of 123% which is significantly above breaking even.

Less than half the selections made the top third of the field, which is disappointing. But the strike rate here was 43% and not so low as to be a major concern. I would also have preferred to see more of the selections showing improved performance compared to their last run.

Overall, I’m happy to see Joe gives a very high proportion of potentially good value bets, but his consistency (in this review period at least) was mediocre at best.

Verdict: Neutral

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