We can look forward to a fine Saturday afternoon of racing tomorrow, with the promise of more to come next week at Glorious Goodwood.

Of course, the feature race of the weekend is the King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Ascot. It’s a middle-distance Group 1 event run over a mile and a half, and we currently have seven runners scheduled to go to post. Included among these is this year’s Derby winner Workforce, who is trading around the even money mark at the moment.

A ‘good thing’ you might think. Maybe. Eight of the last fourteen winners of this race were sent off as favourite, and the last six winners have all been the punters’ choice.

But the Stoute horse also falls down on a couple of trends as well. The Irish-bred horses have dominated this race in recent years, and you have to go back to Pentire in 1996 to find the most recent winner not to have hailed from across the Irish Sea.

The race has been won typically by versatile horses, with at least four wins under their saddle already, and wins over a variety of at least three different distances. Workforce is a relative novice by comparison. It’s perhaps a bit irreverent to remind everyone that Workforce has only won one decent race, when that race happens to be The Derby.

Nonetheless, there are two horses running tomorrow that tick more trends boxes than the favourite, namely Harbinger and Cape Blanco.

You could choose to lay bets against Workforce for an equal risk/reward ratio at even money. However, for me, much more appealing is the potential pay-off of backing Cape Blanco at around 6/1

So that will be my bet of the weekend, Cape Blanco for the King George.

I’m off to get stuck into more trends analysis ahead of Goodwood which kicks off next Tuesday. Enjoy your weekend, and for those fellow parents amongst you, I have selected a track which may well strike fear into your very hearts, as you look forward to the next six weeks….

It’s Alice Cooper – School’s Out For Summer!

It’s about time I updated you on my recent betting exploits. It’s been a while since I did this, and I must admit I’m prompted to tell you how I’ve been getting on recently, largely, no, almost entirely because this week I landed my biggest win for a long time. I will tell you all about my 66/1 winner in a minute, but also in this post there is a report from the York Dante meeting, a look ahead to the Lockinge meeting at Newbury on Saturday, and as usual I have grabbed a topical music video off YouTube for your enjoyment.

Let’s go back to last Friday and it was the last day of the Chester May Meeting. I had an interest in the two feature races of the day, namely the Dee Stakes and the Ormonde Stakes. In the Group 3 Dee Stakes I fancied the John Gosden horse Azmeel with Frankie on board. £20 went on Azmeel and I also had a fiver saver on Prompter who duly trailed in last by a distance. Held up until the last 2 furlongs Azmeel came through to win ahead of the favourite and returned 7/2

In the Group 3 Ormonde Stakes I couldn’t see past Harbinger but not interested at the skinny odds so I let him run – still nice to be proved right though. All in all it was a brilliant Chester. I analysed six races and found the winner in five.

Then came Saturday and that was going to prove busy, and I had my eye on five races. In the Spring Trophy at Haydock I had £20 on each of three, and I got the first two home with Lovelace winning at 3/1 and my third choice Georgebernardshaw coming in fourth. Ten minutes later and the fillies were running in the Chartwell at Lingfield. My two finished 2nd and 5th so £40 was given back.  In the Oaks trial I was on Bebopalula who was actually 4 lengths clear at half way. I would have settled for 4 inches clear at the finishing line, but instead she ended up well out of the reckoning. The feature race of the day was the Derby Trial, and I had £20 on both Bullet Train and Captain James Cook. As they rounded the corner, sadly the Aiden O’Brian colt stumbled and fatally injured himself. But it was a good performance by the Henry Cecil horse who made practically all to win at 11/4 My last race of the day was the Heritage Handicap Victoria Cup at Ascot. Sixty quid never looked like returning any cash, and none of my my three choices looked dangerous and they finished 10th, 14th, and 23rd.

Sunday and I had a pop at the Derby Trial at Leopardstown. I was on At First Sight and he forced the pace before being swallowed up by the two market leaders to finish third.

On Tuesday came my big win. One of my niche betting systems highlighted Lucky Breeze running in a lowly median auction maiden at Yarmouth. Trainer William Knight does particularly well with his younger horses at certain tracks, including Yarmouth. Lucky Breeze and That’s Showbiz both came up on my radar as qualifiers, so I popped a playful fiver on them each. Won by five lengths, going away, at 66/1 a happy day!

On to Wednesday and day one of the Dante Meeting at York. We’re right in the middle of ‘trials season’ and today it was the Musidora Stakes and the Duke Of York Stakes I was interested in. Cabaret was very disappointing for me in the Musidora, and at the moment it seems you bet against a Henry Cecil filly at your peril. I drew a blank in the Duke Of York as well, with my two choices finishing down the field in 5th and 6th.

Today and I started by taking a punt against last year’s Oaks winner Sariska in the Middleton Stakes. I plumped for Flying Cloud looking for some value, but value amounts to not much above nothing when your horse finishes 3rd precisely as the market predicted. In the big race of the day, the Derby Trial Dante Stakes I fancied the Stoute colt Workforce. He had attracted fair support, but finished runner up to Aiden O’Brien’s Cape Blanco. I ended with a winner though, and in the Hambleton Handicap I put my faith in three to the tune of £20 each, and scored with Fareer at 11/2

~o0o~

This weekend the race everyone will have their eyes on is the Lockinge Stakes at Newbury. The Lockinge is generally a stepping stone for mile horses on their way to the Queen Anne Stakes at Royal Ascot. Paco Boy is currently a shade odds on for the race, so it seems a question of whether you are with the Boy or against the Boy. Instead I have been looking at the trends for the London Gold Cup to be run thirty five minutes before the Lockinge. It’s a Class 2 handicap over a trip of 1m2f. In recent years this has gone to horses with good recent form - a top three place last time out has been typical – and a run within the last month to bring them to fitness. The winners profile is of a horse usually rated between 84 and 93. I am drawn to three horses which all fit the bill, namely Verdant, Monterosso, and Right Step. A low draw has historically been an advantage and coming from the lowest draw I fancy Monterosso to make a good showing.

~o0o~

This week’s retro track is from one of my favourite women singer-songwriters the wonderful Joan Armatrading. In tribute to my 66/1 winner this week Lucky Breeze, this one is called ‘Lucky’. Enjoy, and I’ll be catching up with you again soon.

It’s the end of another week fellow TIPs, and I’ve been reminded twice in the last seven days that there is no such thing as free money, a dead cert, a steering job, nor a banker. More on that later, but first let me tell you what’s coming up in today’s post. With the Cheltenham Festival less than a month away, this week end is the last chance for most Prestbury-Park-bound horses to get in a final prep run. So I’m going to preview one of tomorrow’s big races, and I’ve got a live contender at 20/1 for you. I’ve also got a few trends horses you might want to put in your notebook for the week end as they have been highlighted by my analysis. Finally, I’ve got another topical track you may not have heard for a while.

So what’s been happening to the Cheltenham big shots this week? First Denman crashes through the birch last Saturday in the Aon Chase, and dumps Tony McCoy on the floor. The bookies will have heaved a sigh of relief as the favourite failed to get home at odds of 6/1 odds on. And then yesterday Zaynar, outright favourite for the Champion Hurdle, is beaten at Kelso at 14/1 odds on. 14/1 odds on! Who takes those kind of bets? And who offers those kind of prices? Those grinning bookmakers of course. On both occasions punters must have thought they were simply buying money, but if only backing horses over obstacles were that simple. It’s not as if Denman hasn’t fallen foul of a fence before either. I hope a few people learned a lesson.

Here are my thoughts on the Blue Square Gold Cup Chase run at Haydock tomorrow, and some of the leading contenders.

There will not be any 100/1 available about last year’s Grand National winner Mon Mome before the race, although it’s likely you may get matched at that price in running, as I don’t think he will enjoy the likely heavy going at Haydock. He has run three times since the National and the last two times have been unsuccessful in testing ground.

On the other hand David Pipe’s horse Our Vic has shown he can handle tacky ground, by winning here at Haydock a month ago in the Peter Marsh Chase. He was given a mark of 167 for that run which would have been good enough to win the last nine renewals of this race. If he can re-produce that kind of form again then the forecast 20/1 is very generous.

Ballyfitz from the Nigel Twiston Davies yard is I think a bit out of his depth. Over fences he has so far only recorded two wins, both in novice chase company. To win this race would represent a career best performance by far.

Philip Hobbs saddles Dream Alliance who won the Welsh National at the end of December. Winning around the testing course at Chepstow suggests he should have no problem getting the trip around the flat course at Haydock, and he is a live contender in my opinion.

The last horse I’m considering is Silver By Nature trained by Lucinda Russell. He finished a close second to Dream Alliance in the Welsh National and is two pounds better off for this race. I think 2lbs is neither here nor there so to pick who will come out on top in this race will depend who has the better day. It goes without saying Silver By Nature is also in with a good chance.

The market will doubtless favour the leading pair from the Welsh National, but I cannot ignore the likely high price on offer for Our Vic. If he can repeat the calibre of his last run here at Haydock he will be fighting out the finish.

My selection: Our Vic forecast 20/1

Profitable trends

Here’s three horses from my ‘niche betting’ file, running tomorrow at Ascot and Haydock. Research into the most obscure niches can sometimes reveal profitable trends that 99% of punters thumbing through the Racing Post will be completely unaware of.

Ascot 2:45 Beshabar – trainer has a 54.6% strike rate with horses returning to the track within 5 days of their last run, and backing these has returned a profit of +52.2%

Ascot 4:55 Sprinter Sacre – trainer’s record with fancied debutants in bumpers with a single figure price is a strike rate of 37.8% and a profit of +44.6%

Haydock 4:45 Suntini – when trainer saddles a horse who won last time out over hurdles or fences, between the months of Spetember and April, she has a strike rate of 31.6% and backing these horse has yielded a profit of +65.4%

And finally, if we’re talking about free money, there could only be one track I could possibly sign off with today. Back in the 80’s only two men could wear a headband a get away with it…. John McEnroe, and Mark Knopfler. So here is Mr Knopfler, and a few friends you may recognise….

You’ll like this… not a lot… but you’ll like it. It’s my usual end-of-the-week post, and today I’m going to try to conjure up a winner for the weekend, see if my trends analysis can’t pull a rabbit out of the hat, and finish off with an appropriate retro track. Can you see what I’m doing here?

The Victor Chandler Chase tomorrow at Ascot features the Tingle Creek winner Twist Magic, and it’s the race that will likely embarrass me this week. It’s a Grade 1 steeplechase for the speedy jumpers at 2 miles and a furlong, but the ground is currently described as ’soft’ so a degree of stamina will come into play. These are the leading contenders, and my comments about each.

Twist Magic is the warm favourite, trained and ridden by the fantastic duo, Paul Nicholls and Ruby Walsh. It’s not difficult to see why he is top of the market. He won the Tingle Creek at a similar, right-handed track with an uphill finish, on soft ground, on his last outing 49 days ago. Not much to add really, save to say he is the one to beat. But does that mean he is the one to bet at just 11/8?

Champion jockey Tony McCoy is aboard Petit Robin from the Nicky Henderson yard. He won the Desert Orchid Chase at the Kempton Christmas meeting, so it can be seen he has the ability to win at this level. The question mark is whether he will get the better of Twist Magic in the testing ground, as he is largely unproven on soft going. All his runs since early 2007 have been on good or good to soft.

David Pipe saddles Well Chief who finished behind Petit Robin last time out. It was his third race of the season, so you could fairly expect him to have been to full fitness by then, and I don’t think there is more to come from the horse. So I would be surprised to see him reverse the form with Petit Robin.

The next horse to consider is Cornas from the Nick Williams stable. He has form on soft ground, having won at Exeter last time out. Of note however, was his second last race at Ascot where he finished runner-up to Fix The Rib. Although a lower class race than today, it was a strong race, in my opinion.

The last horse I’m considering is Fix The Rib from the Gary Moore yard. He was in the Desert Orchid Chase also, but took a fall. He has shown good form during 2009 and I think his winning run at Ascot in November may be underestimated by punters.

I’m praying no-one drops out between now and the time the tapes go up, and we still see eight runners start. This is because although I think Twist Magic is the one to beat, Fix The Rib offers better value with an each way bet, or a bet to place on the exchanges.

My selection: Ascot 2:40 Fix The Rib each-way forecast 14/1

Profitable trends

Here’s a couple of horses from my ‘niche betting’ file, running tomorrow at Lingfield. Research into the most obscure niches can sometimes reveal profitable trends that 99% of punters thumbing through the Racing Post will be completely unaware of.

Lingfield 1:40 Tatawor – trainer has a 54.6% strike rate in 3yo sellers on the all-weather, and has a ROI of 61.6%

Lingfield 3:20 Rock A Doodle Doo – Jarvis horses returning to all-weather tracks after less than 10 days since their last run, score 31.9% of the time, and return a tasty profit margin of 121.5% when not wearing headgear

Chapeau!

Of note this week, I thought, was the appointment of William Buick as stable jockey to John Gosden. William is just 21 years of age, and only rode his first winner three years ago. Since then was champion apprentice in 2008. He leaves the yard of Andrew Balding who had this to say about him “He’s come a long way in a short time and you don’t do that unless you’ve got a lot of natural talent, which he has” Buick is spending the winter in the United Arab Emirates, and replaces Jimmy Fortune as Gosden’s first choice jockey. Congratulations William!

I’m playing out with my retro track of the week. I hasten to add it’s a couple of years before my time, from the age of platform shoes, sparkly costumes, and (apparently) cricket pads! Nonetheless, enjoy…. Wizzard!