But now I’m not so sure.

With the Cheltenham Festival just two short weeks away, I have to confess I find myself a-dithering. I want to jump off, but someone must have just painted this fence I am sitting on, because I appear to be stuck.

I find myself perched, my fellow TIP’s, upon the horns of a dilemma, and it’s getting painful. In fact, technically I’m not 100% sure it can be called a dilemma, as my particular problem has three horns, so if there is such a thing my puzzle could be described as a trilemna! Whatever it be called, I am squirming in my seat like a politician at an expenses enquiry.

UOSKRAATT…. It’s a Gold Cup conundrum. In January I had a strong opinion of my favourite for the showpiece at Cheltenham. I was firmly routed in the Kauto Star camp. However, as curtain-up approaches I’m trying to maintain my strong opinion and I find I can’t…. because I now have three strong opinions and they are each vying for my attention.

My original opinion was that Kauto Star deserves to be at the top of the market for the Gold Cup and is one of the finest chasers I have ever seen. I was at Kempton over Christmas to see him annihilate the King George field, taking thirty six lengths out of his nearest rival within the length of the finishing straight.

My second opinion is that Denman deserves to be second favourite for the Gold Cup and is one of the finest chasers I’ve ever seen. His performance when conceding such a weight to his rivals when taking the Hennessy at Newbury in muddy conditions was nothing less than awesome; but I still think Kauto Star is a better horse.

My third opinion, is that Imperial Commander does not deserve to be favourite nor second favourite for the Gold Cup but isn’t far behind the other two. And quite frankly, I like this horse.

The Cheltenham Gold Cup has long been showcased as a duel between Kauto Star and Denman. At the beginning of the year both were equal favourites for the title of Champion staying chaser. But then Denman shot AP McCoy out the side door at Newbury in the Aon Chase. Kauto Star is now odds on, and you can back Denman at 7/2 and even 4/1 with William Hill as the author writes this. Imperial Commander is generally 10/1

What to do?

My heart still tells me Kauto Star will win, but I cannot have him at odds on. Meanwhile, the thinking side of my character says Denman has to hope Kauto Star is not firing on all cylinders on the day to win, but at 4/1 perhaps there is now considerable value in that particilar proposition.

What to do indeed! As a result of these inner churnings, my anticipation of the Festival has reached new heights.

Of one thing I remain steadfastly certain…. I love horse racing because it is one true theatre for debate. Lets look at Denman as a prime example of a horse who can divide and polarize opinions. There is a school of thought that suggests that the only way to enter into the steeple-chasing Hall Of Fame is to carry top weight to victory in a prestigious handicap. Denman has been there, and in fact done that, twice. The other half will retort that to gain immortality a horse must prove himself in a championship race at level weights. Well Denman can rightly tick that box as well. And then the other half (is that now three halves?) of which I include myself, suggest in all probability he will not win the Gold Cup.

I have to take my hat off to Denman and his connections for the way he has been so boldly campaigned, given his prior health issues. I think it is testament to the trainer, and the owners Harry Findlay and Paul Barber, to recognise that the betting public and racing enthusiasts all have a desire to see a great horse tested to his extraordinary limits. He has shirked very few issues in a solid career, but if today’s ante-post market for the Gold Cup is anything to go by he clearly still has a little way to go to win over everybody. Myself included…. even though the 4/1 is sitting there like a piece of chocolate cake, just tempting me to take a bite.

The great thing about this season’s Gold Cup at Cheltenham, even though it has been hyped to the rafters, is that most agree it is going to be a belter! And who is to say that one of the underdogs will not defy all expectations and grab the glory from the two main protagonists? Imperial Commander?

Have your say. Who do you think will win the Cheltenham Gold Cup? Leave your thoughts in the comments below.

The beginning of yet another week, Dear Reader, and today I’m going to quickly review the weekend racing action, take a look forward at what I have planned for SkyBlueKangaroo this week, and also give you a pointer towards a race at the Cheltenham Festival.

The Victor Chandler Chase was my feature race of the weekend, and I had picked out Fix The Rib as a good chance for a place behind Twist Magic, and at a decent double figure price. Disappointingly he was scratched from the race on Saturday morning. The contest was won convincingly by Twist Magic to underline his position as leading contender in the field against Master Minded for the Queen Mother Champion Chase.

Whilst we are on the subject of the Festival in March, I want to bring to your attention if you were not aware already, the fact that four of the last five runnings of the Champion Bumper have been won by the horse with the highest Racing Post rating. As I write this post the mare Araucaria has the highest RP rating obtained in a National Hunt flat race with a mark of 132.

You can back her at 16/1 with a few firms at the moment, and I think this represents some pretty good value. When I spotted the mare’s figures it did get me trying to remember when was the last time either a filly or a mare won the race. Hairy Molly sprang to mind as the champion in 2006 but on checking the formbook I was surprised to find that Hairy Molly was actually a gelding… not ‘whole’ granted, but not a horse of the female persuasion neither!

Going back further a couple of years to 2004 I found the finish was disputed by two mares, namely Total Enjoyment and Refinement, with the former taking the spoils by two and a half lengths. Refinement returned a year later to finish fourth in the same race, ridden by none other than Kieron Fallon.

So I think you could do worse than take a little of that 16/1 about Araucaria to win the Champion Bumper at Cheltenham come March.

What do I have lined up for this week on SkyBlueKangaroo? Well, the review of Betting Against Horses For Profit is ongoing, as is that of Hot Horses. So I shall have updates on both systems.

On Wednesday I have another educational-type post lined up – at least I hope you will find it educational. At any rate, I’ve written it with the intention of imparting some racing and betting experience I hope many of you will find of interest.

This Saturday sees Cheltenham host the Festival trials fixture and there could be plenty of stars on show. Denman was included among the eleven entries for the Argento Chase, the new name of the Cotswold Chase. The Aon Chase on February 13th has also been identified as a potential warm-up race for the Gold Cup contender before the Festival.

I have particular interest in the Cleeve Hurdle as Lie Forrit is engaged and he is my ante-post pick for the Pertemps Handicap Hurdle Final at the Festival.

On Friday I will pick a race to feature from the weekend fixtures, and do some research with the aim of coming up with a good bet.

Before signing off today, a quick word to congratulate Matt Bisogno and the members of the Stowstowquickquickstow Partnership for the performance of Night Orbit this afternoon at Fontwell. He followed the pace admirably (Night Orbit, not Matt!) until around 2 out when either the heavy going or the trip took its toll and he couldn’t maintain the gallop of the leading trio. The horse had none other than Mr McCoy on board, and I should imagine that if Matt per chance got to shake the great man’s hand in the paddock before the race, then that is a hand that Matt will not allow near soap for a while to come!

Further reading:

Go Forrit!

When Well Chief beat Master Minded into submission at the Cheltenham Paddy Power meet it was arguably the biggest shock of the jumps season so far. But trainer Paul Nicholls has since revealed his star two-miler had a stress fracture in his 10^th rib.

How do you miss something as serious as a stress fracture in a horse, I hear you cry? Well quite easily apparently. A minor rib injury would not present itself until the horse was put under pressure and those powerhouse lungs were blowing like a blacksmith’s bellows. Even working up the steep gallops at Nicholls’ stables he would not have been at full tilt, as he would in a hard race at Cheltenham.

Nicholls has been quoted as saying: “It was obviously aggravating him at Cheltenham when he hung so badly right. There is no reason he won’t make a full recovery and we will get him back for the Game Spirit at Newbury in February as prep for the Champion Chase.”

At least we now know why Master Minded looked so out of sorts at Cheltenham, and I’m sure it will come as a huge relief to Nicholls to have a confirmed diagnosis.

As stable mate Kauto Star only just managed to get home in front of Imperial Commander in the Betfair Chase at Haydock recently, there will be those who are queuing up to say Nicholls is finished. This scribe thinks not.

Every so often there is a handicapper rising through the weights that manages to capture the imagination, and I wonder what you think about my favourite youngster at the moment, Lie Forrit ?

He was victorious at Cheltenham in November, and positively cruised home at Newbury recently. I’ve held a torch for him since the Spring when he finished his novice season, and I fancy him for the Pertemps Handicap Hurdle Final at the Festival in March.

I reckon he will be put up another 12lbs for his easy latest win, and some will suggest he will have to go for the World Hurdle as he will be shouldering too much weight to have a chance in the Pertemps. If I were the owner, I would keep him under wraps until the Festival and I think he would still trot in under top weight.

Lie Forrit is something of a rarity who can handle speed over an extreme trip. He has not let the punters down in his last two starts at Cheltenham and Newbury, and in my opinion there is still plenty more to come.

Lie Forrit for the 2010 Pertemps Handicap Hurdle.