Can I give you betting profits on a Plate?

by Paul on June 24, 2010 · 4 comments

As we approach the weekend I’ve got three horses to mention for the Northumberland Plate on Saturday, a special word for one of the heros of our sport, and a topical tune (or should that be ‘toon’?) to round things off.

Lets start with the biggest race of the week end, the Northumberland Plate at Newcastle. It’s a handicap race for thoroughbreds aged three years old upwards, and run over the staying distance of two miles. This is one of the highlights of the flat racing year in the north of England and is the feature race of a three-day festival that takes place at Newcastle Racecourse, usually on the last Thursday/Friday/Saturday in June.

The Northumberland Plate is popularly known in the north-east as the “Pitmen’s Derby” as in its early years it was the one opportunity for the local mining families to enjoy a day at the races. Today the geordie lasses treat it as a north-east’s version of Royal Ascot, but with a [shall we say] slightly more “relaxed and informal atmosphere” encouraged in no small manner by the sponsors since 2003 John Smith’s and their products.

Twenty two horses will be going to post this year, which makes this another one of those big-field handicap puzzles, much like the Wokingham, the Royal Hunt Cup, and the Stewards Cup. So who do I think could make it into the frame, and even stick his head in front at the post?

The first horse I think fits the bill is Stansill from the Alan Swinbank yard. He’s won already this season and his last outing was at Haydock when he showed he can stay the trip. In mid-May he finished just over four lengths down in a Listed race at Hamilton. He should go off around the 12/1 mark and is likely to be one of the top half dozen in the betting.

I’m drawn to a couple more runners at more interesting prices too. First, from the Brian Meehan stable and currently available at 25/1 is Aaim To Prosper. He ran in the Ascot Stakes just over a week ago, finishing five lengths down on the winner after twenty furlongs, and that race has produced four of the last fourteen winners of the Northumberland Plate. He’s won over today’s trip so I think he has the tools to do the job.

The third horse I’m going to throw into the mix is Royal Diamond saddled by Michael Dods. He hasn’t hit form so far this year, but he won a class 2 handicap last September at Ffos Las beating Chiberta King who is one of the fancies for this race. At 33’s I think he offers some value against the field.

~o0o~

Chapeau!

A little belatedly (but I have been busy) I wanted to say “chapeau Sir” to Tony McCoy who was awarded the OBE in the Queen’s Birthday Honours List. Sadly AP may not ever get the ultimate recognition from sports fans with his name on the Sports Personality Of The Year trophy, despite being the Champion jockey for fourteen consecutive years, but I was pleased to see him get a pat on the back from one of horse racing’s most high profile fans.

~o0o~

I’m finishing off this week with another topical track. England face Germany in the World Cup (again, and please, PLEASE, no penalties!) this Sunday afternoon. So, after combining the Geordie theme of the Northumberland Plate with football, I arrived at Gazza’s horrendous version of “Fog On The Tyne”. C’mon England!

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{ 4 comments… read them below or add one }

1 Ken Baker June 25, 2010 at 7:15 pm

HI Paul, Ref you method of backing 4yo + favs in sellers. Does this include selling handicaps too? I believe I’ve seen some of them? Cheers, Ken.

Reply

2 Paul June 28, 2010 at 10:38 am

Hi Ken, yes, all selling races. Basically, the principle is that favourites in low gerade races return more money than favourites in high grade races, because more punter money is wagered on the big high profile races, which forces the prices (and hence returns) down.

Reply

3 S D Turner June 25, 2010 at 12:08 pm

Could you please tell me how after sending you £147 I cannot get on your horse racing trends site?????? Douglas

Reply

4 Paul June 25, 2010 at 12:11 pm

Hi Douglas, thanks for contacting me via the blog, as I have replied to all your emails and your email provider Blueyonder (it would appear) is blocking my messages. Please put my email address support AT horseracingtrends DOT com in your safe senders list, then send me an email, and we can get your log in details sorted straight away. Cheers, Paul

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