In this episode of SkyBlueKangaroo….
- Another big race winner for Horse Racing Trends
- The simplest betting system ever devised
- Is Denman too old to win the Hennessy?
- More FREE micro-niche betting systems
- New betting products and services under review
Silviniaco Conti scores another winner for Horse Racing Trends
Last Friday evening I posted my suggestion for the Ascot Hurdle in the members area of my Horse Racing Trends service…
Both Zaynar and Silviniaco Conti are relatively unexposed, and neither are aged between 6yo and 9yo. I’m going to side with the Nicholls horse who has at least the benefit of a recent run, and came away the winner, and at 4/1 offers a much bigger risk/reward ratio.
This wasn’t the result that many were expecting in this Grade 2 hurdle as Silviniaco Conti upset the two market leaders with an impressive success on this first venture out of novice company to extend his unbeaten record.
Paul Nicholls´s 4-y-o was an easy winner on his first two outings after switching from France, including in the Grade 2 Persian War at Chepstow 28 days earlier, the form of which got a boost when Frascati Park took the opening novice hurdle at Ascot the previous day. This classier event was new territory for him, but he answered each question asked of him with aplomb and it was clear from two out he was going to hand his trainer and jockey a big-race double. His hurdling was particularly pleasing considering he wouldn´t have raced at this sort of a pace before and it´s hard at this stage to know just how high up the ladder he may climb over hurdles.
His rider Noel Fehily later admitted to being very impressed and added, while he should get further in due course, the winner would have little trouble dropping back to 2 miles. He was later introduced into the Champion Hurdle market as short as 8/1 (Coral), while also being cut into as short as 7/2 (Totesport) for the World Hurdle. Considering his stable has the reigning champion for the latter event in Big Bucks, such a price looks ridiculously short, and, as he will be a 5-y-o next year, a crack at the Champion Hurdle is probably the more likely route for him. It must also be considered that with Zaynar failing to run near his best, this form is a little suspect and it would be wise to hold fire until seeing where he turns up next. His trainer said afterwards that he may well now be left off until the spring, but later went back on that and reported that the 2m StanJames.com Interational Hurdle (better known as the Bula) at Cheltenham would be on his agenda. His Champion Hurdle credentials will be well tested there.
Silviniaco Conti’s win followed up another winner for Horse Racing Trends as Little Josh led the field pretty much from the off in the Paddy Power Gold Cup the previous weekend at Cheltenham. Little Josh was returned at 20/1 and we’ve been enjoying similarly tasty winners in the big handicaps recently. Both Times Up in the November Handicap at Doncaster at 14/1 and Aaim To Prosper at 16/1 in the Cesarewitch were highlighted by trends analysis.
I shall be offering new members the chance to join the service next week, and I’m making a number of season tickets available, on a first-come-first-served basis, for the Jumps season through to the end of May next year.
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The simplest betting system ever devised
In my continuing efforts to help you see your betting start to pay, I like to offer some of my own experience, occasionally give my considered advice and opinion, and share my thoughts on betting strategies….
Where shall I start today? Well, today I want to show you a system that is guaranteed to give you a profit. It’s what I call the Clover System. Why? Because it has three parts, just like a clover has three leaves. Let me tell you about it.
Not so long ago I was talking to Henry McAnenly, we had got together to record a teleseminar for my readers. Shortly before we were about to go “on air” Henry was wondering what he should talk about – he confided in me that he could speak his entire message in three minutes…. what was he going to talk about for the other 57 minutes?
Well, Henry had his tongue firmly planted in his cheek when he said that to me…. he went on to give a fascinating interview, and an hour of powerful content for everybody listening. Henry could have talked all evening and still not covered half of what he knows.
But his point was this… the really important stuff – the stuff you absolutely must get correct in your betting business – is all very, very simple.
What you need to do is this, and this is the Clover System….
- Back horses at ‘value’ prices.
- Lay horses when they are ‘over-bet’.
- Repeat steps 1 and 2.
If you follow those three steps consistently, you will eventually start to make your betting pay.
This ain’t rocket science.
Now I know that is grossly over-simplifying things, and that path is one of those paths that has lots of landmines on both sides of it.
But that is what I like to think SkyBlueKangaroo is all about…. helping you down that path.
I have a step by step plan that will take you from watching your betting bank slowly spiral away down the plug-hole every month….
….to seeing your account growing steadily over the months. In time you will be in a position where you can take a regular income from your successful betting business.
This is the same plan that I have followed over and over – the one that hauled me out of a very dark hole back in 1998 (which you will have heard me talk about in the Betting With A Gun To Your Head video elsewhere on this site) to a enjoying a consistent additional/second income stream today.
I aim to put this ‘plan’ into a series of short videos early next year, so look out for more news on that front.
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Is Denman too old to win the Hennessy?
My usual look ahead at the weekend’s top racing, through the eyes of trends analysis….
The big race of the weekend is the Hennessy Gold Cup at Newbury, and sees Denman making his seasonal debut. He is currently top of the market at 4/1 but is he vulnerable? Close inspection of previous results would suggest he may be…. in the last 14 years we’ve seen three six-year-olds win the Hennessy, seven seven-year-olds, two eight-year-olds, and two nine-year-olds, including Denman last year. But no ten year-old-horse has won in recent years.
Twelve of the last fourteen winners managed to finish in the top three in their most recent race…. Denman was only 4th in the Punchestowns Gold Cup.
Eleven of the last fourteen winners finished either 1st or 2nd at least three times in their last four outings…. Denman’s form reads 1U24
So, if Denman doesn’t wholly fit the bill for the Hennessy, who should he fear the most? Well, the horse most closely fitting the profile of previous winners is one of Nicky Henderson’s horses, and it is Burton Port.
Two others to consider, according to trends analysis, would be Weird Al and Pandorama.
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More FREE betting systems
According to my Readers’ Poll the thing most of you want more of… is free giveaway betting systems. I’m only too happy to oblige, so in this section I like to offer you my latest research….
Most of you will know I was an early adopter of what I have always referred to as ’micro-niche betting systems’. I’ve been researching these statistically-based systems since 2002, and the term ‘micro-niche’ has now become popular parlance for this type of betting system .
What are they? They are mechanical betting systems. Each will represent a fairly obscure sub-trend, but each has produced a profit over the long term. Most are very simple in nature, but because they highlight only relatively few selections, viewed on their own they do not provide much action throughout the season. However, when brought together as a whole these systems will usually provide quite a few opportunities to bet each week.
This week I am focusing on the meeting at Newbury tomorrow, and two trainers in particular… Paul Nicholls and Nicky Henderson.
SYSTEM: Follow Paul Nicholls’ horses aged 7yo to 9yo in races 2m4f and beyond. This presents us with the following potential qualifiers….
- 1:30 Nodforms Paula
- 2:30 Big Bucks
- 3:05 Neptune Collonges
- 3:05 Taranis
- 3:05 The Tother One
- 3:05 Niche Market
- 3:40 Pasco
SYSTEM: Follow Nicky Henderson when he runs a horse in any non-handicap hurdles race. This presents us with the following potential qualifiers….
- 11:55 Lieutenant Miller
- 11:55 Secret World
- 12:25 Binocular
- 2:30 Duc De Reignier
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More betting products and services under review
This week I asked for some volunteers to review a number of tipster services, and also a product called Racing Synergy. Half a dozen readers have kindly stepped up to the mark, and committed their time to each produce an unbiased report. To those readers I extend my whole-hearted thanks. As ever, these reviews will cover at least one month of results, so it will be a little while before the full reviews will be posted here. But watch this space.
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That’s about it from me this week. It’s the Tring Victorian Festival this evening. Each year on the last Friday in November the high street is closed to traffic and filled with side shows, fairground rides, and other Victorian attractions. Lots of the shops stay open all evening, offering mulled wine and mince pies. Most of Tring turns out to support the event, and despite the cold weather the Whelan household is about to wrap up extra warm with scarves, gloves and hats, and venture forth… until next time, to your punting success!
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